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Author: Thiemo Fetzer, Associate Professor in Economics, University of Warwick
Original article: https://theconversation.com/to-fend-off-reform-mainstream-parties-must-address-the-tangible-decline-of-british-towns-256249
Reform UK’s surge in recent local elections is not an isolated incident but a culmination of long-term economic and social shifts that have reshaped British society. It is the latest chapter in a narrative that includes the 2016 Brexit referendum and reflects a broader disillusionment with mainstream politics.
To respond to their losses in these elections and the wider trend, Labour and the Conservatives must not treat the Reform vote as a transient protest but as a symptom of systemic challenges.
Structural forces, digital disruption, demographic shifts and austerity have all eroded trust in institutions and fuelled demands for radical change. Reform UK’s success lies in its ability to channel these grievances, often thanks to the crafty use of social media, into a political platform. It’s imperative for mainstream parties to address the root causes of discontent if they wish to fend off Reform as an electoral threat.
The structural roots of discontent
Reform’s rise is deeply tied to a series of interconnected crises that have left communities feeling abandoned. Digital disruption has transformed the economy, with e-commerce and automation eliminating jobs in local retail and manufacturing. This has led to the decline of high streets, which have become symbols of economic marginalisation.
At the same time, demographic shifts have seen younger, more skilled workers move to major cities, leaving behind ageing populations in rural and smaller towns. This exodus has created a sense of neglect.
The 2008–2009 financial crisis further exacerbated these trends, as economic downturns hit already vulnerable regions hard. Unemployment spiked, and austerity measures introduced in the aftermath of the crisis deepened the divide. Public services such as libraries, youth clubs and adult education centres faced severe budget cuts. The notable worsening of public service delivery made it very tempting for politicians to attribute blame for faltering services on pressures arising from immigration.
Reform taps into this “geography of loss” and offers a political platform that promises to address the pain of marginalisation, albeit, never from a position of actual political responsibility.
The daily experience of decline
The erosion of community infrastructure has become a visceral experience for many. Closed community centres have reduced opportunities for social interaction, leading to increased isolation and, in some cases, rising gang activity. Shuttered shops and the decline of local businesses have weakened the sense of place in towns and cities, removing vital “third spaces” where people gather, connect, and build relationships. These spaces, once the heart of local life, have given way to empty storefronts and underused public areas.
At the same time, shrinking council budgets have left local governments struggling to maintain basic services. Public spaces that once served as hubs for civic engagement are now in disrepair, becoming visible signs of institutional failure. This physical decay has become a metaphor for systemic neglect, reinforcing the perception that mainstream parties have abandoned these communities. The result is a deepening sense of disillusionment, as residents feel that their needs are not being met and their voices are not being heard.
Possible healing shocks on the horizon
Emerging trends may offer opportunities to reverse some of the damage caused by structural forces. Remote work, which gained momentum during the pandemic, has the potential to reshape regional economies. It enables skilled workers to relocate to smaller towns and rural areas, bringing with them spending power and civic capacity. If sustained, this shift could help revitalise peripheral communities by reducing the concentration of economic activity in major cities.
The adoption of generative artificial intelligence (AI) also presents both challenges and opportunities. While AI threatens some high-status cognitive and licensed roles, it may also compress the wage premiums that have favoured big-city professionals. This could slightly ease the sharpest edges of inequality, as the benefits of AI-driven productivity are more evenly distributed. However, the transition must be managed carefully to avoid exacerbating existing divides.
Digitally enabled public services, such as chatbots for benefits and predictive maintenance for infrastructure, could improve service quality even under fiscal constraints. These tools could improve the performative state capacity, increase the state’s presence in areas where it has felt absent, rebuilding trust in institutions. Yet, it may also require a renegotiating of the informational boundaries of the state as AI thrives on interconnected data. By leveraging these shocks, mainstream parties could begin to address the spatial and skill gaps that populists exploit.
To reclaim legitimacy and counter populist momentum, mainstream parties must adopt targeted, evidence-based policies. Protecting communities that have been left behind during economic transitions is critical.
Workers displaced by retail automation need support to retrain, and funding is needed to repurpose high streets for new uses such as community workshops, health hubs and community centres. These initiatives would not only create new opportunities but also restore a sense of agency for those who have felt excluded from the economy.
Planning reforms to convert empty retail spaces into co-working hubs and housing would further support this transition, creating vibrant, inclusive communities.
Rebuilding social infrastructure is equally vital. Restoring per-capita funding for youth clubs, libraries and adult education centres would revive community spaces and foster social cohesion. Making grants conditional on measurable outcomes such as reducing crime rates and increasing volunteering participation would add an extra layer of benefit for local populations.
Populism in Britain is not a cultural accident, but the political expression of decades of skill-biased, place-biased, and age-biased shocks, culminating in an austerity programme that localised pain. Reform UK surfs this wave, but the tide can turn. By cushioning ongoing transitions (remote work, AI), visibly reviving public spaces, and sharing new sources of economic value with smaller towns and younger generations, mainstream parties can reclaim legitimacy.
The challenge is not only to respond to populist demands but to reimagine the role of the state in fostering social cohesion and economic opportunity. The path forward lies in proactive, inclusive policies that address the tangible, everyday experiences of decline and restore faith in the political system.
Thiemo Fetzer has benefited from research funding from ESRC, CAGE, UKRI, and the European Research Council.