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With the goal of doubling exports over the next ten years, the National Party’s Boosting Growth Through Trade policy is now central to the coalition government.

The government hopes to achieve this through trade agreements, trade missions and by making India a strategic priority for trade and development.

The benefits of exporting – increased foreign currency earnings, higher paying jobs and better standards of living – explain the coalition’s export goal.

But the reality is that doubling exports is easier said than done. Recent history is not on the government’s side.

A common goal

Ten years ago, then Prime Minister John Key’s government launched the Business Growth agenda.

Within the agenda sat a specific initiative – Building Export Markets. The goal of the initiative was to grow exports to 40% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025 – from NZ$65 billion to $130 billion. But 2025 is here and this target has not been achieved.

Subsequent governments have outlined similar goals. Former Prime Minister Bill English introduced the Trade Agenda 2030 in 2017 and Labour had the 2021 Trade for All agenda.

New Zealand is not the only country to focus on significantly increasing their exports as a pathway to improving the economy.

Under President Barack Obama, the National Export Initiative was tasked with doubling United States’ exports from US$1.5 trillion to $3 trillion over the period 2010–14. The US fell well short of this goal, with exports increasing by less than 50%.

Closer to home, Australia set the goal of doubling the number of exporters between 2001 and 2006.

That didn’t happen either. Austrade – the equivalent of New Zealand Trade and Enterprise across the ditch – has since tried to suggest the goal was only ever aspirational.

The New Zealand government says it wants to double exports within ten years. But recent history has shown just how difficult this can be to achieve.
Me dia/Shutterstock

Slow growth

In 2023, New Zealand’s exports to GDP ratio was 24%, trailing the OECD average of 29%. The under-performance is not new.

Setting aside the nearly 20% reduction in exports in 2021, following the pandemic, average annual growth has hovered around 2%. This is well below the 5–6% growth required to attain the export goal.

Several historical factors – such as low participation rates of businesses in exporting, low productivity and distance to market – and emergent challenges – such as supply chain disruptions, compliance-related costs and non-tariff barriers – have made it difficult for New Zealand to achieve the goal of doubling exports.

A feasible goal?

Considering the failure of New Zealand to achieve the goal of doubling exports, it would be easy to dismiss subsequent governments’ efforts as overly ambitious. It would also be easy to criticise policy makers for ignoring the country’s unique challenges or for disregarding the role of anti-global sentiments, the residual effect of the pandemic and persistent supply chain disruptions.

But there are key considerations the government can make to build and strengthen the export sector.

First, clarity is needed. The government needs to establish growth expectations for individual sectors, industries and regions. While most of our merchandise exports simply cannot double over the next decade, knowledge-intensive, technology, or service exports can.

These expectations need to be aligned with the relevant sectors to enable each sector to develop targets and initiatives which contribute to the overall export goal.

Equally, it is important to establish priorities.

For example, should we grow exports by motivating more businesses to commence exporting? Or should we focus on encouraging current exporters to expand their international operations?

Roughly 12,000 businesses export, a third of which have ongoing export involvement. That means there are 8,000 intermittent, occasional or “uncommitted” exporters that can be nudged to adopt ongoing export status.

Nudging these businesses towards permanent export status requires a good grasp of their unique needs and international pathways.

The task of export promotion should not fall solely on the trade promotion organisation, New Zealand Trade and Enterprise (NZTE).

With trade promotion organisations such as NZTE required to demonstrate impact, there is a preference for supporting a small, carefully curated list of high-growth, high-potential exporters.

But for businesses that miss out on the chance to work directly with NZTE, engaging with the wider network of trade support organisations can be useful. Business councils, chambers of commerce, industry bodies, regional development agencies and shipping ports represent a large untapped resource which can be used for the benefit of exporters.

For exporters, joining chambers of commerce, business councils and other industry bodies remains a valuable way of keeping up with important developments.

Aspirational but not without merit

Maybe doubling exports is aspirational. But there is room for improvement with clarity and buy-in at the sector level, if priorities are spelled out and if we involve the wider network of trade support organisations.

Working on these factors might not lead to a doubling in exports, but they can help build a stronger sector that weathers global economic winds and benefits all New Zealanders. Läs mer…

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently released new estimates suggesting around 846 million people aged between 15 and 49 live with a genital herpes infection.

That’s equivalent to one in every five people from that age group.

At least one person each second (42 million people annually) contracts a new genital herpes infection.

So what is genital herpes, and are cases on the rise? Here’s what to know about this common infection.

First, what causes genital herpes?

Genital herpes is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) caused by the herpes simplex virus, which also causes cold sores.

There are two types of herpes simplex virus, HSV-1 and HSV-2 (and it’s possible to be infected by both at the same time).

HSV-1 most commonly spreads through oral contact such as kissing or sharing infected objects such as lip balm, cups or utensils, and presents as cold sores (or oral herpes) around the mouth. But it can also be sexually transmitted to cause a genital herpes infection.

An estimated 3.8 billion people under the age of 50 (64%) globally have HSV-1.

HSV-2 is less prevalent, but almost always causes a genital herpes infection. Some 520 million people aged 15–49 (13%) worldwide are believed to have HSV-2.

The initial episode of genital herpes can be quite painful, with blisters, ulcers and peeling skin around the genitals over 7–10 days.

Not all people have severe (or any) initial symptoms. This means a person might not know they have been infected with a herpes virus.

Herpes is a lifelong infection, which means once you contract the virus, you have it forever. After an initial episode, subsequent episodes can occur, but are usually less painful or even symptom free.

Both oral and genital herpes are particularly easy to spread when you have active lesions (cold sores or genital ulcers). But even with no symptoms, herpes can still be spread to a partner.

And although relatively rare, oral herpes can be transmitted to the genital area, and genital herpes can be transmitted to the mouth through oral sex.

Read more:
Crusty, blistering and peeling: where do cold sores come from and what can you do about them?

If an expectant mother exhibits a genital herpes infection close to childbirth, there are risks to the baby. A herpes infection can be very serious in a baby, and the younger the infant, the more vulnerable they are. This is also one reason why you should avoid kissing a baby on the mouth.

Changing trends

WHO’s recent figures brought together data from around the world to estimate the prevalence of genital herpes in 2020, compared with previous estimates in 2012 and 2016.

This data shows no significant difference in the prevalence of genital herpes caused by HSV-2 since 2016, but does highlight increases in genital herpes infections caused by HSV-1.

The estimated number of genital HSV-1 infections globally was nearly twice as high in 2020 compared with 2016 (376 million compared with 192 million).

A 2022 study looking at Australia, New Zealand and Canada found more than 60% of genital herpes infections are still caused by HSV-2. But this is declining by about 2% each year while new genital infections that result from HSV-1 are rising.

Genital herpes can be quite painful, presenting as sores and lesions that in severe cases, may take up to a month to fully heal.
Christian Moro

There’s no simple fix, but safe sex is important

Genital herpes causes a substantial disease burden and economic cost to health-care services.

With such a large proportion of the world’s population infected with HSV-1, evidence this virus is increasingly causing genital herpes is concerning.

There’s no cure for genital herpes, but some medications, such as antivirals, can help reduce the amount of virus present in the system. While this won’t kill it completely, it helps to prevent symptomatic genital herpes recurrences, improve quality of life, and minimise the risk of transmission.

To prevent the spread of genital herpes and other STIs, practise safe sex, particularly if you’re not sure of your partner’s sexual health. You need to use a barrier method such as condoms to protect against STIs (a contraceptive such as the pill won’t work). This includes during oral sex.

As herpes is now so common, testing is not usually included as part of a regular sexual health check-up, except for in specific circumstances such as during pregnancy or severe episodes.

So it’s wise not to let your guard down, even if your partner insists they have received the all-clear from a recent check-up.

If there are herpes lesions present around the genitals, avoid sex entirely. Even condoms are not fully effective at these times, as exposed areas can still transmit the infection.

Practising safe sex can help prevent the spread of herpes.
cottonbro studio/Pexels

Immune health

If you are infected with HSV-1 or HSV-2 it’s more likely symptoms will appear when you’re stressed, tired or overwhelmed. During these times, our immune system may not be as functional, and dormant viruses such as herpes can start to develop quickly in our bodies.

To reduce the risk of recurrent herpes infections, try to eat healthily, get at least seven hours of sleep each night if possible, and look out for when your body may be telling you to take a step back and relax. This self-care can go a long way towards keeping latent viruses at bay.

While the prevalence has increased significantly in recent years, we have not lost the war on genital herpes just yet. Safe sexual practices, education and awareness can help reduce its spread, and the stigma around it.

If you have personal concerns, you should discuss them with a medical professional. Läs mer…

While the Australian book market was down 3% last year, genre fiction – popular on BookTok – was among the rare categories that grew.

Since 2020, BookTok has been increasingly influential in how people (especially young people) read. Books popular on BookTok were among the top ten bestselling Australian titles of 2024. Colleen Hoover’s 2016 novel It Ends With Us (also a 2024 film) was fourth, with Sarah J. Maas’ A Court of Thorns and Roses (2015) and Rebecca Yarros’ Iron Flame (2023) the next highest-selling novels, in sixth and seventh place.

In China, one of the world’s largest book markets and most digitised nations, social media is influencing what (and how people read) in new and evolving ways – through two super apps.

Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok, is the nation’s third most popular app, at 900 million monthly active users. Its version of BookTok is even more influential than its Western counterpart. Douyin integrates online sales directly into its platform, allowing publishers to pay for promotions and influencers to earn commissions on the books they sell.

WeChat, China’s most popular app, at over 1.3 billion monthly active users, is integrating ebooks and social reading into the platform. This not only effectively encourages public reading, but boosts app usage and strengthens WeChat’s central role in Chinese people’s digital life.

Douyin: buying books in the app

Publishers are still grappling with how to navigate the reader-led dynamic of “social reading”. Traditionally, book sales are partly driven by publishers promoting their books to audiences. But BookTok is more organic, largely relying on readers sharing and recommending books to one another. While some influencers are sponsored by publishers, the average person on BookTok isn’t being paid. In China, though, there are more commercial opportunities for book creators and influencers to earn income on social media.

Book discussions on Douyin share similarities with BookTok – such as short video formats and enthusiastic communities. But they go much further, by embedding the ability to buy books online. On Douyin, popular book-related videos don’t just generate interest: they include links for viewers to instantly buy featured books. It only takes a couple of taps to add books to users’ carts. Online creators can earn a commission in the process.

Book videos on Douyin typically embed a link for viewers to purchase the book. Readers can also browse and buy all books recommended by an influencer through the ‘display window’ of their account.
Xiang Ren

Douyin’s algorithm, which promotes engaging content regardless of follower count, has empowered many creators – and even ordinary readers – to share their reading experiences, while gaining visibility and sometimes income. In fact, influencers with follower counts between 10,000 and three million contributed to over 70% of total book sales on Douyin.

Douyin’s livestreaming e-commerce is also deeply changing how Chinese people buy books. Popular influencers host hours-long live sessions to sell various products while interacting with audiences in real-time – books being one of the most popular categories. The book-themed livestreaming that seamlessly blends reading, social entertainment and online shopping, becomes highly engaging to readers. Influencer endorsements and exclusive discounts make these events effective in driving book sales.

For example, Chi Zijian’s literary novel The Last Quarter of the Moon, which explores the life of an Evenki woman and the cultural transformation of her Indigenous, nomadic community in 20th-century China, had been promoted by influencer Dong Yuhui in his livestreaming shows and short video content since 2022. The book
saw sales skyrocket from 600,000 copies over two decades to more than five million in recent a couple of years.

Dong Yuhui, one of the most popular influencers on Douyin, was previously an English teacher but rose to fame as a livestreaming host. He is now affiliated with an e-commerce company. Influencers like him operate more like an online bookstore, negotiating big discount from publishers rather than relying solely on advertising fees or commissions.

Douyin has changed how books are sold in China. In 2023, short video platforms occupied 26.6% of the book market share. Physical bookstores accounted for just 12%.

BookTok in countries like Australia, the US and UK often focuses on young adult and genre fiction. But books sold on Douyin span a much wider range, including children’s books, educational titles, self-help and literary books.

Dong Yuhui is one the most popular influencers on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok.

WeChat is reimagining social reading

WeChat is a “super sticky app” that has been dubbed the “Swiss army knife” of social media for its versatility. It’s a communication and messaging platform, but also has dedicated functions that allow users to do things like paying bills and shopping online.

WeChat has also entered the field of digital reading. WeRead (also known as WeChat Reading) was launched in 2015, with the slogan “making reading no longer lonely”. It leverages WeChat’s existing networks of trust and intimacy to foster a distinctive approach to social reading. With over 200 million active users, WeRead encourages reading as a communal activity.

A screenshot of WeRead’s bestseller list. Readers can use WeRead on both smartphones and e-ink devices.
Xiang Ren

WeRead employs a gamified approach to create incentives for engagement. Users earn points and unlock free ebooks by completing tasks such as sharing highlights, posting comments, gifting books and participating in individual or group reading challenges. This strategy practically allows many readers to access site-wide ebooks for free, albeit only for limited periods, which may last just days or weeks. An annual unlimited reading subscription costs about A$40.

Popular ebooks on WeRead highlight the platform’s unique focus on networking through people they know. Acclaimed novels such as Cixin Liu’s The Three-Body Problem, Khaled Hosseini’s The Kite Runner, and To Live by Yu Hua are among the top bestsellers, along with topical titles or classic literature. These are the kinds of books readers might proudly share with their boss, colleagues, or family to reflect their tastes and values.

Bestsellers on WeRead include The Three-Body Solution, To Live and The Kite Runner.

While WeRead offers free ebooks to many users, it does so without relying on advertising. Instead, it operates with subsidies from Tencent, the company that owns WeChat. In return, WeRead brings significant value to its parent company by driving app usage, gathering user data, and strengthening WeChat’s dominance in China’s digital landscape. This model shows digital reading can generate economic benefits beyond direct ebook sales or advertising.

The future of books

Douyin’s BookTok and WeChat’s WeRead are transforming reading books into a deeply social, interactive experience. Douyin’s discounts and WeRead’s free ebooks also makes books more accessible. They effectively promote reading among wider audiences.

For publishers, these platforms offer new opportunities to market books and connect with readers. A growing number of Chinese publishers are creating their own accounts on Douyin to promote and sell books, leveraging social reading dynamics to achieve sales levels previously unattainable through traditional channels.

However, concerns remain over the growing power and influence of tech giants. Critics worry Douyin’s focus on discounts and influencer-driven trends may undermine the value of books, potentially threatening the long-term sustainability of the publishing industry. Not only might readers be encouraged to buy books they are not genuinely interested in, but they may also expect books should always be cheap or free. Some users have concerns about privacy. Some users even sued WeRead for infringing their personal information, prompting Tencent to adjust its data collection processes.

Despite these concerns, the deep integration of social networking, online sales and digital reading in China points towards a book world that is led by readers and centred on social media platforms. Could “social reading”, as shaped by China, become a wider trend?

These innovations undoubtedly stem from China’s unique conditions: the domination of super apps and its vibrant mobile reading culture. But they provide a vision of what the future of reading may look like: deeply connected with social networking and digital life. And a book business that is increasingly linked to social media –  even becoming an integral part of its ecosystems. Läs mer…

Home gardens can provide vital habitat for Australian birds. But there’s more to it than just planting certain types of shrubs and flowering trees.

After decades of encouragement to include native plants in home gardens, urban environments have come to favour certain species and neglect others including some of our most loved birds, such as fairy-wrens.

Birds that thrive on nectar such as honeyeaters, and bossy birds with bold personalities such as noisy miners, some parrots and magpies, tend to dominate the scene. But it doesn’t have to be this way.

We wanted to explore how urban gardens can best support a wider range of Australian birds. Our new review of research on this topic revealed seven key considerations. These fall into two themes: reducing threats and improving habitat.

We found there’s no point doing just the good things (such as plantings) if we don’t stop doing the bad things (such as killing insects, poisoning owls and letting cats hunt). It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a hole in it.

So let’s acknowledge the complexity of nature and take a broader approach to attracting birds to our gardens, by ticking off the items on this shopping list.

1. Secure pets

Domestic cats kill millions of Australian birds every year. So no matter how innocent your cat looks, it remains a highly evolved predator.

The only guaranteed way to protect birds and other wildlife from cats is to keep them contained inside or in purpose-built enclosures, 24 hours a day. You can find out about building your own cat enclosure from government and retail experts online.

Dogs can also stop birds taking up residence in your garden. The mere presence of a dog can deter some birds. Keeping dogs contained at night can reduce the level of disturbance to nocturnal birds. But if you really want to attract birds to your garden, you may choose to keep your dog inside more.

Pet cats at home in a secure cat enclosure in Perth, Western Australia (with owner).
R. Steven

2. Avoid using insecticides and outside lights

Many flying and ground-dwelling insects are in decline. This is bad news for many birds including fairy-wrens, willie wagtails, fantails and robins who rely almost entirely on insects for food. But we can avoid using insecticides or any other form of lethal control such as bug zappers in our own gardens.

Ideally, accept insects as a natural part of your garden. Don’t try to deter them, unless they pose a risk to public safety, such as swarming European honeybees or hordes of European wasps. You can also consider favouring native plants that naturally are resisitant to unwanted insect attack.

Excess artificial light is also taking a toll on insects. Consider whether you really need to leave that outdoor light on all night. Review your existing outdoor lighting using the five principles for responsible outdoor lighting, ensuring all artificial light is useful, targeted, low-level, controlled and warm-coloured.

The eastern yellow robin eats insects.
R. Steven

3. Stop poisoning raptors

The use of rat poison, especially those labelled as “fast action”, is killing native owls and other birds of prey at an alarming rate due to secondary poisoning. In other words, raptors are dying after eating rats and mice that have taken the bait.

Many countries have regulated the sale and use of these products for this reason, but Australia is lagging behind. So if you “give a hoot” about our owls, switch to snap traps. There are also various other effective, humane and efficient options available, including removing unwanted fruit from the ground, keeping sheds tidy, and securing compost bins to keep rodents under control.

4. Prevent window strikes

Birds can fly into windows when they’re unable to differentiate between the glass and the surrounding environment. Strikes may be lethal upon impact or result in injury. A stunned bird is also more vulnerable to predators.

In Australia, bird lovers can reduce the risk by using decals which are decorative stickers intended for windows. Screens, hanging plants or mobiles can also be placed in front of windows to help the birds avoid collisions.

5. Create an inclusive garden

The diversity in Australian birds extends to their diets. Beyond honeyeaters, the nation is home to huge numbers of insectivores, carnivores, seed-eaters and fruit peckers.

Australian gardens typically have plenty of bottlebrush and grevilleas, which stacks the deck in the bold honeyeaters’ favour. So when buying new garden plants, try catering for a wider variety of bird species.

Choose dense shrubs with small white, yellow or blue flowers to attract insects. These bushy plants also make excellent habitat for small birds. Retaining trees ensures our larger birds have nesting sites too.

If you get the garden design right, with a variety of plants to suit all tastes, there is no need to feed the birds.

The red-browed finch eats seeds.
R. Steven

6. Encourage insects

Native bees and flies play a crucial role in ecosystems, both as pollinators and food for birds.

You can provide insects with nesting habitat in the form of insect “hotels”, food (namely flowers and other insects) and safety from pesticides. These small gestures can make a huge difference.

Urban art depicting a native blue-banded bee, which was voted Australia’s favourite insect in 2004.
R. Steven

7. Water the birds too

With the urban heat island effect and growing frequency of extreme heat waves, birds are in need of reliable sources of fresh water. Offer this crucial resource in a water feature such as a bird bath or pond.

Whole neighbourhoods for birds

Your garden has never been more important for birds. Doing your bit in your own backyard can make a visible difference – you will see the birds for yourself. But true conservation gains can only be made when people work together at a larger scale.

Why not start a conversation with your neighbour about attracting birds to your garden? Creating one garden for birds is great, but when we start talking about whole neighbourhoods for birds, that’s magic! Läs mer…

TikTok refugees fled by the millions to RedNote, a Chinese app, in response to the TikTok ban, which went into effect Jan. 19, 2025. The company shut down the app shortly before midnight on Jan. 18.

Through cat memes, shared jokes about the ban and honest conversations about usually avoided topics, former TikTokers and RedNote natives are bridging years of U.S.-China digital separation. This spontaneous convergence recalls the internet’s original dream of a global village. It’s a glimmer of hope for connection and communication in a divided world.

I’m a researcher who studies Chinese and transnational digital media. I’m also a Chinese person who lives in the U.S. I’ve been a RedNote user since 2014.

On Tuesday morning, Jan. 14, 2025, my usual RedNote morning scroll revealed a transformed For You Page. Mixed in with my typical TV drama, celebrity and makeup content were new posts from self-proclaimed “TikTok refugees,” with U.S. IP addresses. As I continued scrolling, the recommendation algorithm flooded my feed with more and more of these posts from new U.S. users seeking to rebuild their community on RedNote.

Rapid influx

The phenomenon exploded rapidly: within 24 hours, the hashtag #TikTok Refugee# on RedNote had garnered 36.2 million views and sparked millions of discussions. RedNote topped Apple’s App Store’s free app charts.

This cartoon posted on RedNote illustrates how native users of the app experienced the influx of Western TikTok users.
screenshot by Jianqing Chen of RedNote user @蒜香排骨’s post

According to these TikTok refugees, with the Jan. 19, 2025, ban looming, users feared losing not just their platform access but their content and income streams as well.

Rather than switching to U.S.-based alternatives like Meta’s Instagram or X, they chose to flee to another Chinese platform as their protest against U.S. tech giants, whom they blamed for lobbying for the ban. Their platform of choice was RedNote.

This unexpected shift largely stems from TikTok influencers like @whattheish recommending RedNote as the new TikTok. Given that the app Douyin is China’s version of TikTok, the exodus to RedNote might seem surprising. However, most other Chinese apps, including Douyin, are only available in Chinese app stores and require Chinese phone numbers to register. RedNote is uniquely accessible to users outside China through app stores in various regions, without requiring a Chinese phone number.

Instead of segregating users by geographical regions with different versions as TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance Ltd., did, RedNote – called Xiaohongshu in Chinese – provides access to the same platform globally. ByteDance is based in China but launched TikTok as a U.S. subsidiary in 2015. TikTok partnered with Oracle in 2022 to handle Americans’ user data to address data security concerns. In contrast, RedNote owner Xingyin Information Technology Ltd. is a Shanghai-based company and so remains free from direct U.S. oversight.

RedNote’s global accessibility

This global accessibility aligns with the original vision for Xiaohongshu. The name Little Red Book – its literal English translation – often leads people in the West to draw parallels with Mao’s revolutionary text, suggesting a communist focus. Yet the platform’s true aspirations couldn’t be more different.

The app, created in 2013, emerged with a rather bourgeois focus. The app’s founders, Qu Fang and Mao Wenchao, met while shopping in the U.S. They positioned Xiaohongshu as a platform that combined social media, lifestyle content and e-commerce, all centered around global travel and shopping.

Though RedNote has evolved to attract a broader demographic, its core user base remains international students, Chinese overseas communities and international travelers. Its name shows the platform’s promise to be a “red” – meaning “popular” in Chinese – guide for foreign travel and shopping. It functions as both a travel bible for Chinese tourists and a fashion curator of glamorous foreign lifestyles.

The app has been influential in transforming lesser-known locations into Chinese tourist destinations. It turned Düsseldorf, Germany, into a foodie destination for Chinese tourists in 2023 and highlighted hip scenes and public restrooms in Paris during the 2024 Olympic games.

For me, as a native Chinese person living abroad, RedNote has become an essential daily platform for searching reviews, sharing life’s moments and staying connected with Chinese communities. Even before the TikTok refugee influx, Xiaohongshu had attracted users from Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and other Sinophone communities.

From memes to open dialog

A TikTok refugee pays the ‘cat tax’.
screenshot by Jianqing Chen of RedNote user Lauren Elizabeth’s post

I nervously lurked in the discussion sections, watching for potential friction and conflicts between TikTok refugees and RedNote natives, or “red sweetpotatoes” as they call themselves. Yet the first encounters were surprisingly heartwarming and playful.

Following word-of-mouth advice, TikTok newcomers posted cat pictures as their first move after opening new accounts. They jokingly call this paying their cat tax. Chinese RedNote users responded with compliments or by sharing their own cat photos in return. This is how they broke the ice despite language and cultural barriers.

When TikTok refugees posted introductions without pets, RedNote users would respond with a meme: a cat holding a gun with the caption “Hello, I am a spy. Show me your cat.” This joke caught on quickly. “Chinese spy” soon became another way to say “Chinese friend.” TikTok refugees even asked “do you want to be my Chinese spy?” as a playful conversation starter.

The ‘I’m a spy, show me your cat’ meme on RedNote.
screenshot by Jianqing Chen of RedNote user dialog

Through cute memes and witty jokes, both groups ridiculed the TikTok ban. They mocked how the ban twists data privacy issues into dated narratives of Cold War rivalry and espionage, rather than treating them as shared digital age challenges that all humans face together.

After these greetings, RedNote natives and TikTok refugees often exchanged questions on various topics. Some of these topics worried me because they could easily turn into conversation-breakers. For example, A TikTok refugee asked about LGBTQ life in China, and a RedNote native inquired about U.S. incomes.

But instead of creating awkward tension as I feared, these exchanges led to meaningful dialog. Chinese users explained their questions about U.S. income: they were curious because Chinese “American dreamers” – Chinese who talk of moving to the U.S. – often paint an exaggerated picture of American salaries and living standards. Americans were surprised to learn that while same-sex marriage remains illegal in China, the city of Chengdu is known as the country’s “gay capital.”

Recalling the internet’s lost promise

As I documented these interactions, they continued to grow and evolve. What started as text discussions extended into livestreaming conversations. This rare moment of direct interaction between American and Chinese social media users reveals that they’re not as different as they might have thought. Online, they were sharing the same interests: cute memes, “thirst traps” and funny comments. Offline, they face similar daily struggles to make ends meet.

How might this end? Will TikTok refugees leave once their enthusiasm fades, or will regulators from either side step in? As someone who has researched U.S.-China media exchanges for years, I’m struck by this moment’s significance, however temporary it may be. This represents a meaningful reconnection between U.S. and Chinese internet users after years of digital separation.

That separation was caused and reinforced by Google’s withdrawal from China, China’s Great Firewall and the U.S. forced segregation of ByteDance’s U.S. and Chinese platforms. In addition, digital platforms and recommendation algorithms increasingly trap people in their own information bubbles.

To me, the moment recalls the utopian vision once shared by California’s internet pioneers and Chinese tech innovators and users: a digital agora and global village.

It’s also a silver lining in the cloud of global divides. Even in a world increasingly fractured by platforms, misinformation and political divisions, unexpected connections can still blossom. Seemingly impossible linguistic, cultural and digital divides can be crossed when people approach each other with respect, sincerity, a touch of humor – and perhaps the aid of AI translators. Läs mer…

When we see a man and woman in a relationship, many of us will likely assume they are straight. Similarly, men and women in same-sex relationships are often thought of as gay and lesbian. However, our new research challenges these popular assumptions.

Many people in same-sex relationships do not identify themselves as gay or lesbian, nor do they report feeling exclusive same-sex attraction. Analyzing a survey of 3,510 adults conducted between 2017–2022 in the Unites States, we found that 27 per cent of respondents with a same-sex partner did not report being exclusively attracted to people of the same-sex. Furthermore, 15 per cent of respondents in same-sex relationships did not self-identify as gay or lesbian.

Meanwhile, for those in different-sex relationships, four per cent did not self-identify as straight, and seven per cent reported having some attraction to people of the same sex.

These findings tell us that how people feel about their sexual identity or sexual attraction is not necessarily consistent with how they may appear with their partner.

Why the inconsistency?

We use the term “sexual inconsistency” to capture this common yet largely hidden phenomenon. Sexuality encompasses multiple dimensions: sexual identity, sexual attraction, and sexual practice — to name a few. Sexual identity refers to how people identify their membership to socially defined sexual groups such as gay, lesbian, straight, bisexual and others.

Sexual attraction is about who a person feels sexually attracted to. Sexual attraction often ranges from exclusive or mostly different-sex attraction, more or less equal bisexual attraction, to mostly or exclusive same-sex attraction. Sexual practice describes who a person has sex or forms an intimate relationship with.

Relationships and human sexuality are far more complex than a binary understanding suggests.
(Shutterstock)

Different dimensions of sexuality do not always align. For example, experts have explained how some men who identify as straight also have sex with other men.

Importantly, experiencing sexual inconsistency does not mean people are confused or not serious about their relationships. Rather, such inconsistency reflects the complex lived realities of human sexuality.

Lowering relationship satisfaction

Our research also reveals that sexual inconsistency can lower relationship satisfaction and increase the risk of breakup. As couple relationships are usually placed in one of two camps today — different-sex or same-sex — this binary has become a new norm in how people tend to think about relationships.

However, a binary understanding of different-sex and same-sex relationships does not quite capture the complexity of human sexuality, which often encompasses multiple categories or falls along a spectrum. For example, the same-sex and different-sex binary often fails to account for bisexual individuals’ relationship experiences.

In addition, in many places different-sex unions are tightly regulated by traditional ideas concerning married life, sex and heterosexual desire. If partners in these unions deviate from such expectations, they could face judgement and experience considerable relationship strain.

Different-sex and same-sex couples face different social pressures regarding how their relationships are supposed to look. Accordingly, our research revealed that sexual inconsistency was associated with lower relationship satisfaction and higher breakup risks for different-sex couples, but it was much less consequential for the relationship well-being of same-sex couples.

For example, we found that if men in different-sex relationships experienced inconsistency between their relationship type and sexual attraction, their relationship satisfaction would be about 0.5 point lower (on a 5-point scale) and their relationships would be twice as likely to break up.

By contrast, if men in same-sex relationships experienced such sexual inconsistency, their relationship satisfaction would only be 0.1 point lower, with no significant increase in the risk of breakup.

Because men’s heterosexuality is rigidly defined, they tend to face harsher judgement and stigmatization.
(Shutterstock)

Men in different-sex couples most affected

Notably, our findings showed that if men in a different-sex relationship experienced sexual inconsistency — such as gay or bisexual men with a female partner — they were least happy with their relationship.

Men in different-sex couples often face rigid social expectations, more so than women. Sexual inconsistency was associated with a 0.4–0.5 point decrease in relationship satisfaction for men, but a 0.1–0.2 point decrease for women, in different-sex unions.

As persistent patriarchal traditions confer high status and privilege on men’s heterosexuality, societal gatekeeping around who qualifies as a straight man is particularly intense. By contrast, social regulation of women’s sexuality is less rigid. Women’s bisexuality and sexual fluidity, for example, are less harshly judged than those of men.

Because men’s heterosexuality is rigidly defined, they tend to face harsher judgement and stigmatization and have more to lose in terms of social status when their sexual identity/attraction deviates from heteronormative expectations associated with different-sex relationships. These stressful experiences may in turn undermine relationship satisfaction.

Our research highlights how relationships and human sexuality are far more complex than a binary understanding suggests. Recognizing this complexity is a first step toward creating an environment conducive to happy and lasting relationships. Läs mer…

Professional hockey has long been criticized for being racially exclusive and prohibitively expensive, making it an inaccessible sport to many. While diversity in Canadian cities has grown, the elite-hockey player base that emerges from them has remained the same.

Efforts to address this imbalance have been made by some hockey organizations, but unless they go beyond superficial gestures, these efforts will fail to make any meaningful changes.

One significant development that could affect junior hockey happened in November 2024. The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) announced that, starting in the 2025-26 season, players from the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) would be eligible to play in its hockey league. Previously, CHL players were barred due to the NCAA’s amateur status rules.

This change, while deeply meaningful for junior hockey in North America, has broader implications for the Canadian hockey landscape, beyond where the National Hockey League’s future stars may be playing as teenagers.

Rules could reshape hockey

Young players are often forced to make difficult decisions about their hockey futures at young ages, and navigating the labyrinthine Canadian junior hockey system can be daunting.

The Canadian system is organized into four main tiers: Major Junior, Junior A, Junior B and Junior C. The CHL is Canada’s premiere major junior hockey organization, overseeing the Western Hockey League, the Ontario Hockey League and the Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League.

Thirty-nine per cent of all NHL draft picks from the 2024 NHL draft were from the CHL, the most of any junior league in the world. While some players enter CHL teams in other ways, the overwhelming majority of CHL players are acquired through a draft.

Alongside the CHL, the Junior A system is spread across Canada with leagues in every province in generally less populated centres.

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Devon Toews in the third period of an NHL hockey game on Jan. 2, 2025, in Denver.
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

The recent news regarding NCAA eligibility removes one of the largest advantages Junior A leagues have had in attracting top talent to their teams: the ability to maintain their amateur status in pursuit of NCAA scholarships.

Many notable NHL players have used this pipeline to further their careers, including Devon Toews, Colton Parayko and Cale Makar. However, concerns for the future of Canadian junior hockey are not limited to those at the very top end of the Junior A system.

Junior hockey pathways

Junior A programs have long served as a pathway for players from non-traditional hockey backgrounds, namely those who are not from white, upper-middle class and two-parent households.

According to the 2021 Canadian Census and public roster data for the Centennial Cup, the average birthplace population for players in the 2024 Junior A tournament was 423,242, compared to 844,554 for Canadian players in the NHL from 2022-25.

This suggests Junior A players often come from smaller, less urbanized communities where access to sports facilities, private training opportunities and other resources tends to be more limited.

Junior A leagues have traditionally relied on elite players seeking NCAA careers. However, the recent policy change means some players are now leaving for the CHL. As of January 2025, 37 players have left British Columbia’s top Junior A league for the CHL.

If this trend continues, Junior A hockey could be severely impacted. Players from non-traditional backgrounds, such as Indigenous hockey players living on-reserve or players living in remote rural centres, could be forced to leave home at younger ages to attend centralized, expensive hockey programs in hopes of catching the attention of CHL scouts.

Additionally, this could put the Centennial Cup, a yearly showcase for emerging talent, in jeopardy as the league’s role diminishes.

Opportunities for Indigenous athletes

Indigenous hockey players face unique barriers in the sport, including racism. Those coming from remote communities with little to no exposure to scouts struggle to afford the high costs associated with hockey and also deal with culture shock and homesickness.

For many Indigenous players, Junior A hockey has provided them with the opportunity to further their hockey careers, increasing the likelihood of future career and educational opportunities.

One such example is Devin Buffalo, a member of the Samson Cree Nation and a former professional hockey player. Buffalo spoke to Naim Cardinal, one of the authors of this story, via Instagram Live in February 2021.

Canadian Hockey League logo is shown on a jersey during the CHL Top Prospects hockey game in Moncton, N.B., Jan. 24, 2024.
THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese

Buffalo recounted how he was cut from the under-18 (U18) team in Leduc, Alta. several times and, as a late bloomer, didn’t play AAA hockey in his final year of eligibility. In his only top-tier, U18 season, Buffalo found the opportunity to play Junior A hockey as he was recruited by the Flin Flon Bombers and was able to follow his dream of playing hockey at Dartmouth College in 2018 as an undergraduate student.

Following his college and professional hockey careers, Buffalo returned to school at the University of Alberta to pursue law. He holds a Juris Doctorate and founded Waniska Athletics, an initiative that provides hockey camps and mentorship opportunities to Indigenous athletes.

Like many other Indigenous hockey players, without the opportunities afforded to him from playing Junior A hockey, Buffalo might not have had the experiences and career he has today.

The future of hockey

The decision to allow CHL players to pursue NCAA college hockey marks a significant shift for junior hockey in North America. While this opens new opportunities for CHL players, it could have unintended consequences on players from marginalized communities, as the door to playing Junior A hockey could begin to close.

For decades, Junior A hockey has been a critical stepping stone for players from various backgrounds. Players with talent and potential may not be able to achieve their dreams of playing hockey at a higher level or start a new career based on the sport they love.

Changes to the Canadian junior hockey system are inevitable, as coaches, teams and leagues are constantly in a state of flux. However, the knock-on effects of the most recent change to NCAA eligibility may exacerbate circumstances that have rendered hockey unable to meaningfully change the perception, and indeed reality, of who is welcome in the game’s elite spaces. Läs mer…

Unauthorized and irresponsible use of drones in wildfire zones can create problems for firefighting aircraft, as seen in a recent collision during the Los Angeles wildfires. A Canadian Super Scooper aircraft assisting with the wildfire suppression was grounded after being hit by a drone.

This incident forced a temporary halt on all air response operations for at least half an hour. Officials in Southern California have requested that people not fly drones in the wildfire zones.

This is not the first time that a drone has disrupted a wildfire response. During the Jasper National Park wildfire in July 2024 all aircrafts were grounded for a significant period of time due to illegal drone operations. Similar cases have been reported during bush fires in Australia.

This incident highlights some of the challenges facing emergency responders by emerging drone technologies. It also highlights the need for more conversations around why wildfire areas are designated as restricted fly zones.

Drone footage published by the LA Times showing damage to the Palisades neighbourhood after the wildfires.

Drone incidents

While drone incidents causing human and property damages are relatively rare, detected violations by sensors seem to be very high and are increasing over time.

In 2024, there were 1,190,922 violations in the United States — a 10 per cent increase since 2023. DroneSec, an online platform that tracks drone threats reported 2,554 drone-related incidents globally, reflecting a 60 per cent increase since 2021.

However, only 17 per cent of these incidents led to seizure of the drone, while in five per cent of the cases was the operator apprehended.

Drone incursion in restricted wildfire zones has been a growing concern in Canada, the U.S., Australia and some European countries in the past few years. Since 2016, there has been an average of 23 reported cases of drone incursions in wildfire zones in the U.S. alone.

As the number of recreational and commercial drones increases, the number of incidents and violations are expected to rise. According to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), more than one million drones had been registered by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, there are over 53,000 drones registered with Transport Canada. These numbers do not include drones under 250 grams that are not required to register.

Drones during emergency responses

During emergency response operations, aircraft fly at low altitudes to assess the situation, help fight the fire and conduct search-and-rescue missions.

Drone operations that are not part of the emergency response can cause significant risks to the air crews, aircrafts, ground firefighters and the public. As part of safety protocols, air-based operations are shut down when drones are seen in the air space or a drone incident is reported.

In wildfire emergencies every minute is important. Interruptions of emergency response teams can delay the response and further increase human and property losses.

Those who illegally operate drones in wildfire zones are doing this for a number of reasons including lack of awareness of the rules or restricted zones, personal or commercial gains and pressures, lack of visible and effective enforcement, poor judgement, ambiguity of the rules and underestimating potential risks and consequences.

Information and regulations

There are many tools that are available for drone pilots to check if an area is a restricted airspace or not. In Canada there are several sources including NavCan Drone Flight Planning App and National Research Council Drone Site Selection Tool that show updated permanent and temporary restricted air spaces including wildfire zones.

In the U.S., tools such as B4UFLY and FAA Temporary Flight Restriction map are available.

Since existing technologies cannot fully detect drone rules violations, awareness and public education campaigns may still be the most cost-effective approach in reducing unauthorized drone operations during wildfires.

Government agencies have created several campaigns to increase awareness around this issue. These include Transport Canada’s “Know before you go!” leaflet and the FAA’s digital toolkit, “Drones and Wildfires are a Toxic Mix.”

Drones can also support emergency responses and firefighting operations.
(Shutterstock)

Drones in emergency responses

Drones equipped with different sensors can provide high-resolution images and data that can be used by emergency managers and first responders for detecting, tracking and identifying wildfires; conducting search-and-rescue missions; suppressing fires; and assessing. Some specialized drones can provide firefighting services, including dispensing water, spraying foam, taking thermal images, locating gas leaks, conducting surveillance and relaying communication.

While unauthorized drone incursions in wildfire zones can hinder response operations, drones and other emerging technologies like artificial intelligence are revolutionizing wildfire risk and emergency response management across the globe. Läs mer…

United States President-elect Donald Trump’s threats against Greenland, Canada and Panama create destabilizing uncertainty about the short-term intent of the U.S. and the long-term nature of its approach to international relationships. NATO’s leadership will have to work adroitly to avoid a crisis.

Warning adversaries about what would befall them if they threatened any of the 32 NATO members through military action is a steadfast NATO function. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty says “an armed attack against one (member of the alliance)…will be considered an attack against them all.”

Donald Trump speaks at the NATO summit in the U.K. in December 2019.
(AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

In the event of such an attack, the other NATO members will take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”

While Trump has claimed that U.S. ownership of Greenland is about “protecting the free world,” it’s difficult to see how NATO would view the use of military force against Greenland as anything other than an armed attack on one of its members.

NATO not weighing in

NATO officials have been quiet on Trump’s comments. Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary-general, side-stepped questions on the issue during a recent visit to the European Parliament.

Rutte only said his formal relationship with the incoming Trump administration has not yet started while praising Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen for focusing on “the issue … at stake, which is the Arctic.”

Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen speaks with the media as she arrives for a summit in Brussels in December 2024.
(AP Photo/Harry Nakos)

Frederiksen has told Trump privately that Greenland is “not for sale” and that the future of the autonomous Danish territory was a decision for Greenlanders alone.

U.S. foreign policy changes as different administrations occupy the White House, but there has been consistency in terms of the American intent to work with allies, seen clearly through its membership in NATO and the North American Aerospace Defence Command, known as NORAD.

Trump insists that America’s allies must shoulder their own defence burden, but he seems to distrust their capability to do so in order to enhance American security as well.

The importance of Greenland

Trump, who floated seizing Greenland during his first term, is not the first U.S. policymaker to champion the need for U.S. control of the territory.

From a defence perspective, Greenland is an important Arctic chess piece for the Americans. The ability to deploy ships and aircraft from the territory, as well as use it for surveillance equipment, significantly strengthens U.S. defence.

Since the construction of Pittufik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) in 1953, the U.S. has had a large military presence on Greenland. In addition to conducting missile defence, missile warning and space surveillance missions, the base also houses a lengthy runway and the most northerly deep-water seaport in the world.

Under the terms of the Defense of Greenland Agreement and its subsequent amendment, the U.S. could boost its military presence on the island.

Additionally, Greenland contains rare-Earth minerals that the U.S. needs.

American student researchers sit on a rock overlooking the Helheim glacier in Greenland in 2019.
(AP Photo/Felipe Dana)

Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Michael Waltz, has said that the focus on Greenland “is about critical minerals,” bolstering Trump’s claim that U.S. control over the territory is necessary “for economic security.”

This may be a response to the mostly unsuccessful Chinese efforts to engage in resource extraction in Greenland. But even so, that’s a flimsy justification for the U.S. annexing Greenland since there’s nothing stopping U.S. companies from exploring extraction rights now.

No need to take over Greenland

The second Trump administration could call on its considerable resources to bolster Greenlandic defence and use the island for military activity to enhance both U.S. security and that of NATO more broadly.

It’s unlikely that there would be any objections to the U.S. building infrastructure on the island, including port facilities and airstrips, that could be used for civilian and military purposes.

Denmark had planned to enhance its military presence in the Arctic prior to Trump’s threats. If those plans are insufficient to the Trump administration, it’s unclear what more Denmark can do to demonstrate that Greenland’s contribution to American defence does not require the U.S. to take formal control of the island.

Angela Merkel checks her mobile phone prior to the opening of the Council of the Baltic Sea States in Stralsund, Germany, in 2013.
(AP Photo/Jens Meyer)

Evidence that the U.S. lacks faith in its allies is nothing new — in 2013, it was revealed that U.S. intelligence services had been tapping German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s phone since 2002, highlighting an American willingness to breach trust in service of their own defence.

U.S. criticism of Canada providing insufficient defence capabilities is a familiar refrain, and not unreasonable.

But to threaten annexing territory or, in Canada’s case, make the lives of Canadians so miserable through economic pressure that the country’s politicians are forced to consider territorial concessions is a highly aggressive approach.

Trump’s aggressive rhetoric

This poses major problems for NATO.

First, Trump’s reluctance to rule out the use of military force to annex Greenland violates provisions of the North Atlantic Treaty, which reaffirms members’ UN commitment to “settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means …and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.”

While the prospect of a U.S. military invasion of Denmark is remote, it’s hard to imagine that NATO could still function if it happened.

Second, Trump’s extremist comments runs against NATO’s principle of clarity. Even if his rhetoric is written off as a deliberate “madman” approach to politics or heavy-handed aggressive bargaining, it erodes NATO’s commitment to consistent messaging among its members.

Donald Trump’s threats about annexing Canada and Greenland are causing widespread alarm among NATO allies. This is an AI-generated image Trump posted to his Truth Social account.

Do Trump’s threats about taking Canada by economic force simply reflect an initial bargaining position, as some have argued? That’s beside the point: it would be foolhardy and naive for Canada to ignore his threats.

An example of the repercussions of those threats is evident in the comments of Andrey Gurulyov, a former Russian military official who has claimed there’s now an opportunity for Russia to take Greenland itself or “make a deal with Trump and split Greenland in two parts.”

Regardless of whether that’s a realistic possibility, the fact that Trump is floating the previously unthinkable prospect of a hostile U.S. takeover of its allies’ territory allows countries long considered common NATO adversaries to capitalize on the chaos for their own gain.

Enmity or amity?

Trump has departed from the NATO and UN principles and agreement not to threaten the use of force against allies.

It’s too extreme for Canada or Denmark to view the U.S. as an enemy in the wake of Trump’s threats, but if this coercion represents friendship, the line between enmity and amity is currently blurred.

Trump may simply be trying to shock Canada and Denmark into increasing their defence spending, accept a greater U.S. military presence and provide the U.S. with more access to their resources. The second Trump administration may ultimately be successful if that’s the goal.

But the costs of taking such an aggressive approach may be that the U.S. loses its ability to position itself as a trustworthy ally and engage productively with allies and partners to support mutually beneficial policy goals.

This would critically undermine NATO’s capability. Läs mer…

Donald Trump is on the eve of becoming only the second United States president to begin a non-consecutive term. Grover Cleveland, more than a century ago, was the other.

Non-consecutive terms have occurred in other countries, particularly in Western Europe and the Americas.

Around the time that Cleveland entered American history books, William Gladstone kept movers busy in London with four non-consecutive terms as British prime minister.

More recently, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi was in power on three separate occasions over several decades. Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — known as Lula — was in power for two terms. After spending more than a year in jail for corruption, he was elected again in 2022.

Emmanuel Macron in November 2024 at the Élysée Palace in Paris.
(AP Photo/Sarah Meyssonnier)

Some countries ban second acts altogether. Mexico’s presidents get one term of six years. In France, the president is prevented from running for a third consecutive term, but may return after sitting out a term. That has not yet been accomplished but the incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, may give it a try.

Trump limited to two terms in total

The U.S. Constitution was amended in the 1950s so that “no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice.” This came about after Franklin D. Roosevelt won four consecutive elections. There will be no third act for Trump unless he’s able to somehow amend the American Constitution during his four years in office.

The history of presidents and prime ministers who have secured non-consecutive terms provides clues to what Trump’s second term might look like.

Grover Cleveland in 1885, the year he was inaugurated president of the United States for the first time. He successfully ran for president again in 1893.
(AP Photo/Library of Congress)

Cleveland’s second term was not as successful as his first. He took strong stances on economic and social problems that were opposed by most Americans, including his own party, and were not in keeping with changes in American society. The economy entered a deep recession as Cleveland was unwilling to try new policies.

He departed office deeply unpopular with Americans and with his party, the Democrats, in tatters. The Republicans claimed victory in the next four presidential elections.

Winston Churchill, British prime minister from 1940 to 1945 and again from 1951 to 1955, is another example of a leader whose second term was far less remarkable than the first. After an impressive first term as a wartime leader in the 1940s, Churchill was ill-suited in the 1950s to dismantle the British Empire and respond to the domestic economy.

In Canada, Pierre Elliott Trudeau was in office for more than a decade before being defeated, but then returned for another term in office. However, beyond important changes to Canada’s Constitution, his final term was less successful than his earlier years in office. Economic troubles plagued the government along with ill-advised responses to the global energy crisis that fostered alienation in western Canada.

The late Berlusconi’s third and final term in office was consumed by sex scandals, corruption and tax-fraud charges, and by a plummeting economy that was followed by a national debt crisis.

Silvio Berlusconi adjusts his tie at the end-of-year news conference in Rome in December 2008, after he was elected for a third time.
(AP Photo/Pier Paolo Cito)

Trump’s next term

Trump won re-election by promising Americans a brighter economic future. That promise may be the most difficult to keep if or when the next recession arrives, and Trump himself is now acknowledging bringing down grocery prices will be “very hard.”

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, Brazil, on Oct. 25, 2024.
(AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)

In Brazil, Lula moved quickly once back in office to place seasoned administrators and people he trusts in positions of power. He was also aggressive in using presidential decrees to reverse his predecessor’s policies.

Trump’s cabinet choices were loyal to him during the past eight years, both while he was in power and after he lost the 2020 election. He’s already signalled that presidential executive orders will be signed his first day in office, including one that will impose the large-scale deportation of people living in the country illegally.

But, unlike Lula’s choices, his picks aren’t all seasoned administrators, especially political novices and mavericks Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who Trump has tasked with jointly heading up a commission to cut government spending.

Read more:
How the Elon Musk-Vivek Ramaswamy DOGE initiative could help Americans dodge red tape

History reveals that such commissions quickly fade as the private sector executives suddenly in government positions realize that fundamental shifts in public administration take many years to accomplish, require approval from Congress and will be far less grand than envisioned.

Leaders who return to power generally know from experience how quickly time and events move. Most do all they can to be more prepared than they were during their first time in the halls of power, and place value on discipline and focus. Trump’s 2024 election campaign, for example, was largely disciplined, with no turnover of key staff.

No encores on the horizon

A common feature of second — or third or fourth — acts is that those leaders are typically older than most elected officials. Gladstone left office at age 84 and Churchill at age 80.

Lula will be 81 when he completes his third term. Trump will be the oldest president in U.S. history at his inauguration. He will be 82 at the end of his term.

These politicians know their political lives no longer measured in decades, but only in years. There are no encores.

If history is an accurate guide, Trump’s second administration will involve hardened ideological positions. His recent comments about annexing different parts of the world — including Canada, Panama and Greenland — reveal a leader still consumed with causing disruption and disturbance.

Read more:
How the U.S. could in fact make Canada an American territory

Indeed, history shows that those who return to power pursue policies very similar to those during their first terms. Second acts have been marred by leaders who are unable, or unwilling, to adjust to unexpected developments in the domestic, economic or global arenas. Läs mer…