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Author: Koffi Améssou Adaba, Enseignant et chercheur en sociologie politique, Université de Lomé
Original article: https://theconversation.com/togos-citizens-want-to-leave-ecowas-new-survey-suggests-why-256928
A survey of Togolese citizens recently looked into perceptions of their government’s handling of the terrorist threat in the northern region and of the Alliance of Sahel States – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The survey was carried out by Afrobarometer, an independent, pan-African research network, in partnership with the Center for Research and Opinion Polls.
The Savanes region in northern Togo, bordering Burkina Faso, has become an area of insecurity since a jihadist attack in 2021. This security crisis is part of a broader context of growing destabilisation in west African countries, centred on the Sahel region. It led to the creation of the Alliance of Sahel States in July 2024. The survey also covered perceptions of foreign influence in Togo and discrimination against women and girls.
Koffi Amessou Adaba, a political sociologist and one of the lead authors of the study, shares insights into the survey’s key findings, and the potential implications for Togo’s future.
What are the key findings of the survey?
The survey, which involved 53,444 people, reveals that 64% of Togolese believe the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States is “somewhat” or “very” justified. This view is driven by three main factors:
• a perception that Ecowas is influenced by foreign powers
• a widespread rejection of Ecowas sanctions against Sahel states
• the belief that Ecowas failed to provide military support during those countries’ security crises.
In addition, 54% of Togolese consider the presence of Russia (or the Wagner Group, now known as Africa Corps) in the Alliance of Sahel States to be beneficial. This trust in a non-western external actor reflects a profound shift in geopolitical perceptions in the region.
Another important finding of this study is that 54% of Togolese believe their country would benefit from leaving Ecowas to join the Alliance of Sahel States.
But opinions are split on whether the Alliance of Sahel States helps or hurts west African integration: 39% believe it doesn’t undermine regional integration, but 37% think it does.
Read more:
West Africa is changing: five essential reads on breakaways from Ecowas
How do you make sense of the Togolese push to leave Ecowas?
This sentiment reflects growing frustration with Ecowas, which many Togolese now see as out of touch with the region’s realities.
The bloc is widely perceived as being too close to foreign powers and ineffective in responding to major security threats. Its repeated failures to help resolve Togo’s political crises (of 2005 and 2017 for example) have only deepened public disillusionment.
This frustration is unfolding alongside a broader wave of pan-Africanism in the region, marked by a growing rejection of former colonial powers and their institutional ties.
But this momentum should be approached with caution. The desire to leave Ecowas reflects anger and a strong appetite for change, not necessarily a clear assessment of the economic and diplomatic fallout such a move could bring.
Read more:
Ecowas breakup could push up food prices and worsen hunger in west Africa
What do respondents think about terrorism in the north of the country?
Nearly six in ten Togolese (59%) say they trust the government to contain or root out the terror threat. This shows broad support for official counter-terrorism efforts, although some question the current strategy.
Opinions are especially split on how the crisis is communicated. Some find the messaging vague or lacking in transparency. Others think it helps keep people alert without sparking panic.
The survey reveals deeper concerns. Even Togolese outside conflict zones report growing insecurity. The northern crisis appears to be fuelling nationwide anxiety.
Read more:
Mali is still unsafe under the military: why it hasn’t made progress against rebels and terrorists
Should Togo leave Ecowas?
Since tensions flared, Togo has been neutral. It has not openly condemned the Alliance of Sahel States countries and has maintained its membership of Ecowas. This careful stance reflects national sentiment – which leans towards support for the Alliance of Sahel States – while preserving Togo’s strategic and economic interests.
This approach isn’t new. It’s part of a long-standing Togolese tradition of balanced, pragmatic diplomacy. The nation has always pursued pragmatic and independent foreign policy that adapts to regional dynamics.
As west Africa’s geopolitical landscape shifts, Togo should:
• maintain open cooperative relations with both Ecowas and the Alliance of Sahel States
• preserve its strategic position as a logistics and trade hub for the region, particularly through the Port of Lomé
• strengthen its image as a diplomatic force for stability in west Africa.
Read more:
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have a new defence alliance: an expert view of its chances of success
Can Togo maintain its delicate balancing act?
Togo’s careful balancing act remains its safest bet. The truth is, no one knows what the future holds for the Alliance of Sahel States bloc. But this middle ground gives Togo strategic flexibility regardless of how regional politics evolve.
Togo’s position leaves it well-placed either way. If the Alliance of Sahel States countries rejoin Ecowas, Togo keeps its influence. If they don’t, it still benefits from its neutrality.
Ultimately, Togo should keep playing this diplomatic card. Its measured approach offers rare stability in a volatile region.
Koffi Améssou Adaba does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.