Författare: Tim Harcourt Industry Professor and Chief Economist Universi

Steve Smith, one of this generation’s finest batters, has conquered much of the cricketing world during his career, and he now has set his sights on a new frontier: the United States.

Yes, Smith has signed to play Twenty 20 (T20) cricket for the Washington Freedom, which happens to be coached by former Australian great Ricky Ponting.

Washington is one of six teams in Major League Cricket (MLC), which began in 2023. The Freedom finished third in the inaugural season, won by New York.

The 2024 season will begin in July before the US co-hosts the T20 World Cup with the West Indies.

A number of established cricket stars have already played in the US league, including Quinton de Kock of South Africa, Nicholas Pooran from the West Indies, Trent Boult from New Zealand and Australians Marcus Stoinis and Aaron Finch.

Major League Cricket has recruited some of the biggest names in the sport.

Looking ahead, T20 cricket has been included for the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games.

So, why is cricket suddenly interested in the US – and does this interest go both ways?

Cricket in the US: what’s the go?

Cricket is slowly becoming better known in the US.

Firstly, it is because of the rising South Asian population who mostly love their cricket.

It is a growing and affluent professional community – the South Asian diaspora is growing at a rapid rate across North America to the point that when you fly into most large US cities, you can spot cricket pitches.

Many South Asian immigrants to the US (and Canada) are engineers, doctors and entrepreneurs with good educations and professional jobs – Indian-Americans are the most affluent group in America by median household income, while Sri Lankans and Pakistanis are two of the eight wealthiest segments.

In terms of education, 70% of Indian-Americans have at least a Bachelor’s degree, compared to the US average of 28%.

A lot of this affluence is ploughed into supporting local cricket leagues in the US and watching the MLC.

In terms of participation, cricket is still very much a niche sport in the US, with about 200,000 registered players. However, this has grown from around 30,000 registered players in 2006, with emigration from South Asia driving the lion’s share of growth.

Consuming cricket anytime, anywhere

Secondly, live streaming has taken off worldwide in recent years, allowing Indians in the US to watch India Premier League (IPL) games back home, and Indians in India to live stream MLC matches.

According to Chris Muldoon, chief strategy officer of Cricket NSW, there are more than 4 million subscribers to Willow TV’s cricket-only streaming service throughout North America.

This means it is easy for most cricket fans can consume what they want, when they want it.

The growth of cricket franchises

Thirdly, IPL franchises are launching clubs and leagues around the world – in South Africa, the UAE and the US – to grow the sport and to attract talent and revenue to their respective franchises.

There is a strong IPL presence across many of the domestic T20 competitions that have launched in recent years, including in MLS where four IPL franchises are involved with the foundation clubs in New York, Dallas, Los Angeles and Seattle.

This is a big shift in cricket governance, as it is not just the cricket boards of Australia, England & Wales and India calling the shots on schedules – it is now the IPL franchises too.

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What does this mean for Australian cricket?

So, how does all of this affect elite cricket in Australia?

Australian cricketers have been competing in T20 competitions around the world for years now, with Cricket Australia occasionally having to step in to reduce the workloads of some of its best players.

Now the MLC will force governing bodies and players to react to another competition in a packed cricket calendar.

According to Muldoon, the opportunity in the US is too big to ignore. He says:

The US is the world’s most sophisticated and competitive sports and media market and Major League Cricket presents the most exciting and challenging opportunity in world cricket.

The proliferation of franchise T20 cricket around the globe, much of it driven by the commercial success of the IPL as well as changing preferences of consumers, is changing the way cricket is consumed. And it is bringing new revenue into the sport – which in turn is making it increasingly attractive to the world’s best players and coaches to be a part of these growing franchise leagues around the world on an almost full-time basis.

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Will cricket really take hold in the US?

So does Smith’s signing indicate a cricket revolution? Does the US aspire to be a cricket nation?

Probably not in terms of Test cricket, but in the US, the shortened format of T20 is possibly appealing.

This is largely driven by the South Asian diaspora who have migrated to North America, and T20 is the format that has the consumer appeal to attract eyeballs – and broadcast partners. The addition of cricket as an Olympic sport for Los Angeles in 2028 may also add to the sport’s exposure. Läs mer…

There was plenty of fanfare and goodwill across the Australian Rules football community when the AFL’s 19th team, the Tasmania Devils, officially launched in mid-March.

Tasmania’s debut season has been pencilled in for 2028, but nothing is set in stone until the team’s controversial new stadium has been locked in after the state’s recent election, which resulted in a hung parliament.

That is all still to play out, but assuming Tasmania does become the league’s 19th team, where will the 20th be based?

In May 2023, when announcing Tasmania had finally won its bid, then AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan said it was “most likely” the competition would eventually return to an even number of teams.

This means either an expansion to 20, or a reduction to 18 through a merger or relocation, which has historically been painful and political for players, administrators and fans.

Let us put mergers and relocations aside for the moment and look at expansion.

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New frontiers, or ‘footy heartland’?

In Australian Rules folklore, the “Barassi line” traces the divide between Australian Rules and rugby (league and union) on the Australian continent.
Named after the great VFL champion Ron Barassi, the line is based on the River Murray border separating NSW and Victoria, up to the Gulf of Carpentaria where Queensland meets the NT.

Historically, anyone south or west of the Barassi line played Aussie rules, and anyone north and east, rugby league or rugby union.

So, will the AFL look to add a new team in “footy heartland” – perhaps the Northern Territory (NT) or a third club in South Australia (SANFL powerhouse Norwood has already made a bold bid), or Western Australia?

Or will the AFL look to further expand into areas where rugby league is strong, such as in New South Wales (NSW), Queensland or the Australian Capital Territory (ACT)? Coaching legend Kevin Sheedy has talked up Newcastle as a possibility, while other suggestions have included Sunshine Coast in Queensland, Central Coast in NSW and Cairns in Far North Queensland.

Darwin and Canberra: the logical options?

The NT government has already set up a taskforce – co-chaired by NT Sports Minister Kate Worden and experienced football administrator Peter Jackson, formerly of Essendon and Melbourne – to develop a business case to push for the 20th license.

Darwin is seen by many as a sentimental favourite, as a team in the NT would make the AFL a truly national competition. The NT has produced so many great players and the side could be based in Darwin, with a few games played in Alice Springs (and even potentially Cairns if the team encompassed Northern Australia).

However, any club in the NT would have to overcome the hurdles of a low population, the economics of a new or renovated TIO Stadium, which holds just 12,500 spectators, and an unsuitable climate. Darwin is exceptionally humid in wet season, making the ball slippery and games often unattractive.

One solution may be to play early-season games in Alice until the dry season arrives in Darwin in May.

The Northern Territory is hoping to join the AFL as its 20th team.

What about Canberra, which first put its hand up to join the VFL in 1981?

Canberra was originally more of an Aussie Rules town before the Canberra Raiders (NRL) and ACT Brumbies (Super Rugby) took a foothold. This is because when Canberra was founded, many public servants were from Melbourne who took their favourite footy code with them when Australia’s capital was moved from Melbourne to Canberra in 1913.

The main obstacle to a new team in Canberra is the fact the AFL’s 18th team, the Greater Western Sydney Giants, have already put their flag down in the ACT, with three home games a year plus an academy and a growing membership base.

It would be tough for the AFL to take the ACT off the Giants after all the work they have done.

The power of population and participation

When former VFL boss Ross Oakley kick-started football’s forays outside of Victoria in the 1980s, he set a rule of thumb for expansion: for locations south-west of the Barassi line, a population of 500,000+ was required, while for the north-east, a population of 1.5 to 2 million was needed.

Oakley also said a good 20-25 years of investment was required to make expansion work in traditional rugby league territory.

So the variables often cited are population and demographics, ‘footy-readiness’, alternatives in the market and infrastructure.

In terms of population and demographics, James Coventry’s book “Footballistics” details Australia’s population by football codes:

Even adjusting for population increase, NT is still a small market. But it often comes top in terms of participation rates – more than 13% of Territorians participate in AFL programs compared to 8% in WA, 6% in SA and 2% in Victoria and 1.9% for NSW/ACT combined.

The NT is also top in terms of adult participation and top four in terms of children’s participation.

By contrast ACT is 6th, but still ahead of Queensland and NSW in terms of the kids participation rates.

At AFL level, the NT produces 56 elite AFL players per million people with only Victoria and SA ahead. ACT produces 17 ahead of Queensland, NSW and Ireland (the only major source of AFL talent beyond our shores).

What about infrastructure?

In terms of infrastructure, both Perth and Adelaide have ready-made stadiums. In SA, the likely third team Norwood already has Norwood Oval that hosts AFL matches during Gather Round. They could also play at Adelaide Oval.

In Perth, Optus Stadium is world class. Darwin and Canberra, though, would need significant upgrades to current grounds, if not the development of new stadiums.

And the winner is…

The decision of where the 20th team should be based is not as clear-cut as Tasmania claiming the 19th license.

The NT is a feel-good story but a small population, difficult climate and financial considerations are hurdles.

Canberra is perhaps second favourite, but a sticking point is GWS’ foothold there, which is an important element for a recent expansion club still needing as much support as it can get.

Third teams in WA and SA are viable but do not add much to the competition in terms of new frontiers.

It’s an intriguing landscape, but there is no hurry. As the AFL has said, they need time to bed down Tasmania first as the 19th club before contemplating the 20th. Läs mer…