Författare: Elizabeth Simon Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics

With just days to go until local election day on May 2 2024, it appears that the London mayoral race may be narrowing.

Our new poll suggests that the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, now leads his chief rival, the Conservative candidate Susan Hall, by just 13 percentage points. Commissioned by the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London (where I work) and fielded by Savanta from April 8 to 17, the poll was based on a demographically and politically representative sample of 1,038 adults living in London.

The poll finds that if the election were to be held tomorrow, 46% of the vote would go to the Labour Party candidate (Khan) and 33% to Hall. There would be a tight race for third place between the Liberal Democrat candidate (Rob Blackie), on 9% of the vote, and the Green Party candidate (Zoe Garbett), on 7%.

This 13-point lead is significantly lower than the 20-or-so-point leads Khan commanded in polls conducted through March and early April.

The poll narrowing may be genuine but it may also be related to changes in polling methodology. Savanta has introduced a new weighting method for London mayoral polls, designed to correct for the over-representation of 2021 Khan voters and the under-representation of those who supported his Conservative rival Shaun Bailey in 2021 in samples.

This new method first took effect in the April 2024 Mile End Institute poll, and helps to explain why Savanta’s Khan lead shrunk from 24 points in polling conducted with Centre for London in early April, to just 13 points in our poll, conducted later that month.

In polls where methodology has remained consistent, though, Khan’s lead has also narrowed slightly. For example, YouGov’s most recent London mayoral vote intention poll, fielded between April 9 and 17, showed Khan leading Hall by 19 points, while YouGov’s February 2024 Mile End Institute poll had Khan’s lead at 25 points.

Decisive issues and potential vulnerabilities

Boroughs in the south and west of the capital may be key battlegrounds ahead of Thursday. There, Khan leads Hall by just eight percentage points. In the north and east, by contrast, his position is relatively more secure, amounting to no less than a 17 percentage point-lead on Hall.

It is important to note, though, that our sub-sample sizes are quite small in some of our borough groupings. This finding should thus be interpreted with some caution.

This potential narrowing of the polls – and the prospect of relatively strong support for her campaign in south and west London – might be cause for optimism for Hall. However, a greater proportion of Londoners believe that Khan is responsible, inspiring, decisive, competent and ambitious than feel the same way about Hall. And more Londoners believe it is clear what Khan stands for than his rival – though this may just reflect that Khan has already served two terms as mayor.

We found that 77% of Londoners who voted for Khan in 2021 said they would vote for him again if the 2024 mayoral election were to be held tomorrow, while 10% said they would vote for his Conservative rival. A combined total of 9% said they’d switch to Liberal Democrat or Green Party candidates.

In contrast, 85% of the Londoners who voted for Bailey, the 2021 Conservative mayoral candidate, say they would vote Conservative again. Only 5% would switch party by voting for Khan.

When presented with a list of potential issues and asked which were most important when deciding how to vote, respondents said inflation and the cost of living (40%), the NHS (39%), crime (38%), housing (32%) and the economy (31%).

The issue of the expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) was not included in the list presented to respondents due to a desire to keep the issue set used consistent across polls, to allow comparison – so we are not able to comment on how the issue of Ulez is likely to shape the vote, on the basis of our data.

Londoners said inflation and the cost of living was their top priority in the mayoral elections.
Denys Kurbatov/Shutterstock

It is striking that the issue of the NHS – a policy area over which the mayor of London has little power or influence – appears as though it could have such an impact on the outcome of this contest.

Voting for Hall is motivated by different concerns than voting for Khan, Blackie or Garbett. Among those who said they would vote for Hall if the London mayoral election were tomorrow, the three “most important issues” cited were crime, immigration and the NHS, in that order.

For those who said they would vote for Khan, these were the NHS, inflation and the cost of living and housing.

Those who said they would vote for Blackie, meanwhile, opted for housing, inflation and the cost of living and crime. And those who said they would vote for Garbett chose inflation and the cost of living, crime and the environment and climate change.

Note that prospective Khan and Blackie voters, and Blackie and Garbett voters, have two of their top three vote-motivating issues in common. Hall voters share only one motivating factor of their top three with any of the other voters.

This points to a potential vulnerability for Khan. A vote for Khan appears potentially more readily transferable to the other main candidates than a vote for Hall. Though votes for Hall may transfer, to some extent, to the Reform candidate, Howard Cox. Läs mer…

Polls have consistently shown that the incumbent mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, appears to be on track to win a third term in office at the upcoming mayoral elections on May 2.

One poll we commissioned as part of our Polling London series in October 2023 put Khan ahead of his Conservative rival, Susan Hall, by 50 points to 25 (a 25-point lead for Khan). The next poll in our series (conducted in February 2024) had Khan leading by the exact same margin, albeit with the figures 49 to Khan and 24 to Hall this time.

While the mayoral race clearly didn’t narrow much in this period, there is reason to believe the race may become tighter as election day nears.

Low satisfaction ratings

Khan’s lead in the mayoral race is not built on high levels of satisfaction with his previous performance in the role. Our February 2024 poll showed that only 27% of Londoners say they are “very” or “somewhat” satisfied with the way he has performed since becoming Mayor of London. Meanwhile, 45% claim they are “somewhat” or “very” dissatisfied. Khan’s rather lacklustre approval ratings make his lead appear rather more shallow.

Mayoral candidates Zoe Garbett, Sadiq Khan and Susan Hall, at the Jewish Community Hustings in April 2024.
Andy Sillett/Alamy

People living in outer London appear to be particularly dissatisfied with Khan. Half of residents (49%) say they are either “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with his performance, compared to 37% of those living in inner London.

This could be due to Khan’s decision, which came into effect in August 2023, to expand the ultra low emissions zone (Ulez). We know that outer London residents were considerably less supportive of this policy. Data from our October 2023 poll shows that while 52% of those living in inner London supported the Ulez expansion, it garnered the support of only 32% of those living in outer London.

That said, the popularity of the Labour party, and the relative unpopularity of the Conservative party in London, works to Khan’s advantage. We know that Londoners tend to vote along party lines at mayoral elections. Analysis of our February 2024 polling data suggests that approximately 80% of the Londoners who would vote Conservative and Labour if there were a general election tomorrow would also vote for the Conservative and Labour candidates if there were a mayoral election tomorrow. This helps to explain why Khan is doing better in the mayoral race than his satisfaction ratings might suggest.

The Liberal Democrat and Green party’s mayoral candidates – Rob Blackie and Zoe Garbett – are currently polling at only moderate levels (10% and 9% respectively). If their vote shares were to improve, Khan’s could take a hit.

What’s more, in the 2021 mayoral race, the polls overstated Khan’s lead over his nearest rival, the Conservative’s Shaun Bailey.

In the lead up to election day, candidates would do well to pay attention to Londoners’ concerns about policing, crime, personal safety, housing, health services and the cost-of-living.

Policing, crime and personal safety

A recent poll, commissioned by the Mile End Institute, where we are both based, and fielded by YouGov from February 12-19 2024, found that 52% of Londoners felt policing, crime and personal safety was one of the most important issues currently facing the city and its population. Meanwhile 46% opted for the provision of affordable quality homes and 37% for healthcare provision in the capital.

The next most important issue, according to Londoners, was the affordability of public transport, which 25% of respondents highlighted.

Londoners’ concerns about policing, crime and personal safety are likely, at least in part, to be a reflection of their low levels of trust in the Metropolitan police service. In the same Mile End Institute/YouGov survey, just 5% of Londoners were found to have “a great deal” of trust in the Met. By contrast, 36% had “not very much” trust in the service and 14% had “no trust at all”. Trust in the Met is particularly low among ethnic minority Londoners. We find that almost one fifth (19%) of black and ethnic minotiry Londoners report having “no trust at all” in the service, compared to around one tenth of white Londoners (11%).

Londoners are also worried about the affordability of city living. The same survey found that 60% of Londoners described the city as “expensive”, up from 43% in September 2018. That represents a 17-percentage point increase. In light of the cost-of-living crisis and rising inflation, this is not surprising. It suggests mayoral pledges which seek to make life in London more affordable may be popular across large swathes of the electorate.

The question is whether these same issues will be at the forefront of the minds of Londoners when deciding how to vote. Recent polling, commissioned by ITV News, and fielded by Survation from March 21-26 2024, certainly suggests so.

When asked to select the single most important issue in deciding how to cast their vote at the upcoming London mayoral election, the most popular option chosen by respondents was the cost of living (41%), followed by crime (12%) and healthcare (11%). London’s economy and housing came in fourth and fifth places, respectively, selected by just less than 10%. Läs mer…