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Content warning: this story deals with infant loss and human remains acquired historically for use within museum contexts.

A collection of fetal and baby skeletal remains at the University of Otago’s W.D. Trotter Anatomy Museum shows how those on the margins of 19th and early 20th century New Zealand society contributed to medical knowledge – with or without the consent of their loved ones.

The museum is a repository for more than 2,000 anatomical models and “specimens”. It is largely unknown how many of these remains came to be part of the museum’s collection.

But our new analysis of the skeletal remains and associated historical records of babies in the collection from pre-birth to up to one year old show they were largely born to unmarried mothers or lower-class families.

The museum’s collection mirrors a global historical phenomenon where the bodies of society’s most vulnerable — such as infants, the poor, and the marginalised — were used for medical education.

The origins of anatomical collections

New Zealand’s 1875 Anatomy Act mirrored British laws that allowed the use of unclaimed bodies from public institutions, like hospitals and asylums, for anatomical study.

These laws disproportionately affected impoverished families. Hospitals were able to retain custody of the deceased when families lacked financial means for burial or an individual’s body lay “unclaimed”.

Our archival analysis focused on the University of Otago Register of Anatomical Material of body acquisitions from 1876-1941 and associated birth and death certificates.

We were looking for the remains of babies less than one year of age (the medical meaning of infant). We found skeletal remains ranging from five months in-utero up to three months of age.

The skeletal analyses found there were at least 32 infants, and a range of bones from individuals of different ages.

Seven of the 18 infants with records available were born to unmarried mothers, and many were from working class families.

Many of these babies were stigmatised as “illegitimate” and their mothers were often forced to birth in homes for the unmarried.

There is evidence for two dying from birth trauma, one including the possible use of forceps during birth. There is evidence for dissection on some individuals.

There are also four individuals with developmental anomalies whose remains may have been kept for dissection and education as examples of anatomical “oddities.”

Although the archival analysis of age and cause of death are similar to our skeletal analysis, we cannot determine which remains belong to specific individuals.

Anatomical research in the 19th and early 20th century relied on medical collections. But modern researchers need to reflect on how these remains were donated.
Tom Chalky – Digital Vintage Library/Getty Images

The structures keeping babies from families

It can be argued that structural violence – the harm inflicted by societal structures and institutions — played a central role in the lives of these mothers and infants. It is part of the reason they were included in the collection.

For example, this was a period when single mothers found themselves in charity-run homes where their children were more likely to be relinquished to medical institutions.

This coincided with a push for the development of anatomical collections by physicians who held significant power within the medical systems at the time.

The uneven power-balance between the mothers and those around them may have made it harder for the families to retain their babies’ remains.

Prioritising respect and consent

Today, the existence of such collections raises challenging ethical questions, and we acknowledge the sensitive nature of studying these remains.

How do we reconcile the scientific value of these remains with the history behind their acquisition? Can the study of these collections offer insights without perpetuating historical injustices?

At present the remains are carefully curated within the museum. These skeletal remains are invaluable for teaching in anatomy.

By doing this new research, we can better inform ourselves of the ethical challenges of teaching with these remains and inform students of when and how they were acquired.

The stark contrast between historical and modern ethical standards is evident in New Zealand’s Human Tissue Act 2008, which mandates explicit consent for the use of human remains.

As we navigate the legacy of these collections, it is important to contextualise them within their historical framework.

This requires acknowledging the social inequities that led to their creation and ensuring contemporary practices prioritise respect and consent.

This work is dedicated to the babies who died and were subsequently kept in the W.D. Trotter Museum. Läs mer…

Content warning: this story deals with infant loss and human remains acquired historically for use within museum contexts.

A collection of fetal and baby skeletal remains at the University of Otago’s W.D. Trotter Anatomy Museum shows how those on the margins of 19th and early 20th century New Zealand society contributed to medical knowledge – with or without the consent of their loved ones.

The museum is a repository for more than 2,000 anatomical models and “specimens”. It is largely unknown how many of these remains came to be part of the museum’s collection.

But our new analysis of the skeletal remains and associated historical records of babies in the collection from pre-birth to up to one year old show they were largely born to unmarried mothers or lower-class families.

The museum’s collection mirrors a global historical phenomenon where the bodies of society’s most vulnerable — such as infants, the poor, and the marginalised — were used for medical education.

The origins of anatomical collections

New Zealand’s 1875 Anatomy Act mirrored British laws that allowed the use of unclaimed bodies from public institutions, like hospitals and asylums, for anatomical study.

These laws disproportionately affected impoverished families. Hospitals were able to retain custody of the deceased when families lacked financial means for burial or an individual’s body lay “unclaimed”.

Our archival analysis focused on the University of Otago Register of Anatomical Material of body acquisitions from 1876-1941 and associated birth and death certificates.

We were looking for the remains of babies less than one year of age (the medical meaning of infant). We found skeletal remains ranging from five months in-utero up to three months of age.

The skeletal analyses found there were at least 32 infants, and a range of bones from individuals of different ages.

Seven of the 18 infants with records available were born to unmarried mothers, and many were from working class families.

Many of these babies were stigmatised as “illegitimate” and their mothers were often forced to birth in homes for the unmarried.

There is evidence for two dying from birth trauma, one including the possible use of forceps during birth. There is evidence for dissection on some individuals.

There are also four individuals with developmental anomalies whose remains may have been kept for dissection and education as examples of anatomical “oddities.”

Although the archival analysis of age and cause of death are similar to our skeletal analysis, we cannot determine which remains belong to specific individuals.

Anatomical research in the 19th and early 20th century relied on medical collections. But modern researchers need to reflect on how these remains were donated.
Tom Chalky – Digital Vintage Library/Getty Images

The structures keeping babies from families

It can be argued that structural violence – the harm inflicted by societal structures and institutions — played a central role in the lives of these mothers and infants. It is part of the reason they were included in the collection.

For example, this was a period when single mothers found themselves in charity-run homes where their children were more likely to be relinquished to medical institutions.

This coincided with a push for the development of anatomical collections by physicians who held significant power within the medical systems at the time.

The uneven power-balance between the mothers and those around them may have made it harder for the families to retain their babies’ remains.

Prioritising respect and consent

Today, the existence of such collections raises challenging ethical questions, and we acknowledge the sensitive nature of studying these remains.

How do we reconcile the scientific value of these remains with the history behind their acquisition? Can the study of these collections offer insights without perpetuating historical injustices?

At present the remains are carefully curated within the museum. These skeletal remains are invaluable for teaching in anatomy.

By doing this new research, we can better inform ourselves of the ethical challenges of teaching with these remains and inform students of when and how they were acquired.

The stark contrast between historical and modern ethical standards is evident in New Zealand’s Human Tissue Act 2008, which mandates explicit consent for the use of human remains.

As we navigate the legacy of these collections, it is important to contextualise them within their historical framework.

This requires acknowledging the social inequities that led to their creation and ensuring contemporary practices prioritise respect and consent.

This work is dedicated to the babies who died and were subsequently kept in the W.D. Trotter Museum. Läs mer…

20 years have passed since the Aceh tsunami, which left deep scars on Indonesia, especially for those directly affected. Aceh was also recovering from a three-decade armed conflict between the Free Aceh Movement and the national government

Throughout December 2024, The Conversation Indonesia, in collaboration with academics, is publishing a special edition honouring the 20 years of efforts to rebuild Aceh. We hope this series of articles preserves our collective memory while inspiring reflection on the journey of recovery and peace in the land of ‘Serambi Makkah.’

In her 50s, Ci Mary (not her real name) made a difficult decision to leave Aceh this year to follow her son to Java for better career opportunities. Born and raised in Sigli, part of Pidie Regency, Ci Mary witnessed numerous changes in Aceh during the New Order dictatorship era and after the 2004 tsunami that devastated the province she called home.

The Aceh Chinese, a subgroup of Chinese Indonesians, comprises less than 1% of the province’s population. Their existence is almost forgotten, and their voices and stories are often excluded from national and local accounts. Space for Aceh Chinese remains limited, even in extensive scholarly works and local knowledge productions on Aceh, due to their ambiguous political status.

The province’s unique political context further complicates their existence: Aceh’s history as an Islamic kingdom, its contested position within the Indonesian nation, and its status as a special autonomous region. These factors collectively contribute to Aceh being widely perceived as an Islamic region governed entirely by Sharia law.

For my PhD ethnographic research, I have been exploring the overlooked memories of the Aceh Chinese. Living in a homestay in Banda Aceh with Aceh Chinese, I interacted with over 50 individuals and formed close connection with 20 Aceh Chinese, including Ci Mary. Her story offers a glimpse into the sub-ethnic group, highlighting the importance of memory in shaping identity and a yearning for belonging.

Memories of Aceh from Aceh Chinese perspectives

The Chinese connection with Aceh dates back to trade long before the Dutch consolidated their power in the region in the 19th century. As the Dutch expanded economic activities in Sumatra, waves of Chinese migration to Aceh from China and other parts of Indonesia followed. Over time, their descendants, born and raised in the region, came to regard Aceh as their home, integrating deeply into local society.

However, the memories of the Aceh Chinese during periods of crisis and the armed conflict between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian government are rarely the focus of public narratives. The state often neglects ethnoreligious minorities in conflict resolution, a tendency shaped by colonial legacies that entrenched the idea of autochthony — a sense of being “native” with an inherent claim to the land. The pribumi (native) versus non-pribumi dichotomy and the concept of putra daerah (children of the region) exemplify this political consciousness.

Ci Mary’s story provides insight into the collective memories of the Aceh Chinese. When Chinese schools were forcibly closed during the New Order regime, her father, a Mandarin teacher, lost his teaching position. Like most Chinese Indonesians of her generation, Ci Mary does not speak Mandarin but is fluent in another dialect group, Hakka, along with Acehnese and Indonesian. Deeply embedded in the local community, she formed close friendships with Acehnese neighbours and married her late husband, an Aceh Chinese man whose stepmother was called “Mama Aceh.”

Located in a coastal town, Sigli is one of the areas deeply affected by the 2004 Aceh Tsunami.
KARITING PICAH/Shutterstock

Together, Ci Mary and I visited Sigli to pay respects at her family’s tombs in 2022. Most of her relatives were buried there, but this was her first visit to the graveyard since the 2004 tsunami — a life-changing event that prompted her migration to Banda Aceh. The ruins and neglect of many graves silently revealed signs of tragedy, the passage of time, and the absence of familial care. This contrasts with the graves in Banda Aceh, which receive more attention.

Mass emigration

Sigli’s neglected graveyard reflects the trajectory and loss of the Aceh Chinese. Over Indonesia’s history, many Aceh Chinese left the region due to a series of major events: Sukarno’s 1959 policy restricting foreigners’ small trade and retail activities, disproportionately targeting the Chinese; the 1966 military directives linking the Chinese population to the alleged Indonesia Communist Party coup attempt; the 2004 earthquake and tsunami; the prolonged conflict between GAM and the Indonesian government lasting from 1976 to 2005; and the enactment of Aceh’s special autonomy under Sharia law.

These events reshaped the community and the destinies of its members.

Today, my ethnographic research and conversations with Aceh Chinese in Sigli found that only around 20 Aceh Chinese families remain in town. Emigration continues, driven by limited social and economic opportunities. The younger generation, in particular, leaves Aceh to pursue education and often builds a future elsewhere.

Only 20 Chinese families stay in Sigli as younger people seek economic opportunities outside of Aceh.
Wak Ded/Shutterstock

Ci Mary, however, remains deeply connected to Aceh, identifying herself as both Chinese Indonesian and Orang Aceh. Having strong ties to Aceh and the Acehnese community, she recalls that while many Aceh Chinese paid taxation to GAM during the conflict, her family was spared. Nevertheless, she observed that the Aceh Chinese occupy a liminal space — neither fully insiders nor outsiders. This ambiguity leaves them uncertain about their rightful place in the region.

The loss of Ci Mary’s daughter and father during the tsunami permanently altered her life. Although raised in a devout Buddhist family, Ci Mary has sought solace and strength in God as she navigates a new spiritual path in Christianity. This journey has become a refuge and a source of healing.

While Ci Mary’s memories are personal, they reflect collective memories of the Aceh Chinese. Like many others, Ci Mary feared the uncertainty and violence of the time. She, too, lost loved ones to the ghostly wave. Her life has been profoundly linked to Indonesia’s social and political forces and its unexpected challenges.

Sharia Law and negotiated belonging

Buddhists in Banda Aceh celebrated Chinese New Year with prayer rituals and burning incense at the Dharma Bhakti Vihara on February 10, 2024.
Mardili/Shutterstock

Memory plays a powerful role in shaping identity and belonging. The way society remembers — or chooses to forget — determines who belongs and where. This process, often shaped by authorities and institutions, influences how we imagine ourselves, others, and our nations.

Society’s memory is selective and inherently political, particularly for minorities whose fragmented recollections challenge dominant narratives, offering alternative ways of navigating identity and belonging.

Despite political shifts and the implementation of Sharia law, which governs daily life and imposes restrictions based on Islamic values, the Aceh Chinese continue to live in the region but not without challenges. Though Sharia law is said not to apply to non-Muslims, its impacts are pervasive. The laws and Islamic values ingrained in society establish social and political boundaries, often rendering non-Muslims as “outsiders”.

Non-Muslim cultural and religious events still occur in private spaces, under permission and protection, such as Christmas celebrations and Buddhist rites. However, building new churches or temples is nearly impossible due to strict regulations and suspicion.

The Aceh Chinese negotiate their presence individually and collectively. Associations such as Yayasan Hakka Banda Aceh collaborate with state and non-state actors. Meanwhile, my research shows that individuals practise subtle forms of resistance, maintaining their cultural presence through nuanced, quiet expressions of identity.

As I converse with Aceh Chinese for my research, I find them aspire to contribute to Aceh’s future, envisioning a peaceful place for their descendants. Yet much work remains to achieve sustainable peace and inclusivity. Addressing these challenges requires moving beyond superficial tolerance and multiculturalism towards meaningful justice and equality.

This year, Ci Mary bade farewell to her home. Yet, her memories of Aceh and the emotional connections to its land and people remain. Läs mer…

In late November, Australia’s federal parliament passed landmark legislation banning under-16s from accessing social media.

Details remain vague: we don’t have a complete list of which platforms will fall under the legislation, or how the ban will look in practice. However, the government has signalled that trials of age assurance technologies will be central to its enforcement approach.

Video games and online game platforms are not currently included in Australia’s ban of social media. But we can anticipate how enforcing an online ban might (not) work by looking at China’s large-scale use of age verification technologies to restrict young people’s video game consumption.

In China, strict regulations limit children under 18 to just one hour of online gaming on specified days. This approach highlights significant challenges in scaling and enforcing such rules, from ensuring compliance to safeguarding privacy.

‘Spiritual opium’: video games in China

China is home to a large video game industry. Its tech giants, like Tencent, are increasingly shaping the global gaming landscape. However, the question of young people’s consumption of video games is a much thornier issue in China.

The country has a deep cultural and social history of associating video games with addiction and harm, often referring to them as “spiritual opium”. This narrative frames gaming as a potential threat to the physical, mental and social wellbeing of young people.

For many Chinese parents, this perception shapes how they view their children’s play. They often see video games as a disruptive force that undermines academic success and social development.

Parental anxiety like this has paved the way for China to implement strict regulations on children’s online gaming. This approach has received widespread parental support.

In 2019, China introduced a law to limit gaming for under 18-year-olds to 90 minutes per day on weekdays and three hours on weekends. A “curfew” would prohibit gameplay from 10pm to 8am.

A 2021 amendment further restricted playtime to just 8pm to 9pm on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays.

In 2023, China expanded this regulatory framework beyond online gaming to include livestreaming platforms, video-sharing sites and social media. It requires the platforms to build and complete “systems for preventing addiction”.

Genshin Impact, developed by Chinese company MiHoYo, is one of the highest-grossing mobile games of all time.
Lukmanazis/Shutterstock

How is it enforced?

Leading game companies in China are implementing various compliance mechanisms to ensure adherence to these regulations. Some games have incorporated age-verification systems, requesting players to provide their real name and ID for age confirmation.

Some even introduced facial recognition to ensure minors’ compliance. This approach has sparked privacy concerns.

In parallel, mobile device manufacturers, app stores and app developers have introduced “minor modes”. This is a feature on mobile games and apps that limits user access once a designated time limit has been reached (with an exception for apps pre-approved by parents).

A November 2022 report by the China Game Industry Research Institute – a state-affiliated organisation – declared success. Over 75% of minors reportedly spent fewer than three hours a week gaming, and officials claimed to have curbed “internet addiction”.

Yet these policies still face significant enforcement challenges, and highlight a wider set of ethical issues.

Black Myth: Wukong, an action roleplaying game based on Chinese mythology, broke several sales and player count records upon release earlier this year.
AP Photo/Andy Wong

Does it work?

Despite China’s strict rules, many young players find ways around them. A recent study revealed more than 77% of the minors surveyed evaded real-name verification by registering accounts under the names of older relatives or friends.

Additionally, a growing black market for game accounts has emerged on Chinese commerce platforms. These allow minors to rent or buy accounts to sidestep restrictions.

Reports of minors successfully outsmarting facial recognition mechanisms – such as by using photos of older individuals – underscore the limits of tech-based enforcement.

The regulation has also introduced unintended risks for minors, including falling victim to scams involving game account sellers. In one reported case, nearly 3,000 minors were collectively scammed out of more than 86,000 yuan (approximately A$18,500) while attempting to bypass the restrictions.

What can Australia learn from China?

The Chinese context shows that a failure to engage meaningfully with young people’s motivations to consume media can end up driving them to circumvent restrictions.

A similar dynamic could easily emerge in Australia. It would undermine the impact of the government’s social media ban.

In the lead-up to the law being introduced, we and many colleagues argued that outright bans enforced through technological measures of questionable efficacy risk being both invasive and ineffective. They may also increase online risks for young people.

Instead, Australian researchers and policymakers should work with platforms to build safer online environments. This can be done by using tools such as age-appropriate content filters, parental controls and screen time management features, alongside broader safety-by-design approaches.

These measures empower families while enabling young people to maintain digital social connections and engage in play. These activities are increasingly recognised as vital to children’s development.

Crucially, a more nuanced approach fosters healthier online habits without compromising young people’s privacy or freedom. Läs mer…

As a way to gather poetry from across a career, a “selected” is not as unwieldy or as final-sounding as a “complete” or “collected” edition. The even more popular “new and selected” helps old poems reach a new audience, while offering established readers some of the poet’s latest work.

As Jill Jones notes in her latest collection, Acrobat Music: New and Selected Poems, there are practical issues as well. Poetry volumes tend to go out of print and are unlikely to be digitised. A selected edition, then, is a way to raise poems out of oblivion, as much as it is a chance to demonstrate and reflect upon the development of the style and ongoing themes of a writer.

Review: The Other Side of Daylight: New and Selected Poems – David Brooks (University of Queensland Press) & Acrobat Music: New and Selected Poems – Jill Jones (Puncher and Wattmann)

When is the best time to release a selected edition? Jones published Screens Jets Heaven: New and Selected Poems way back in 2002. It gathered poetry from her earliest volumes, including the first, The Mask and the Jagged Star, which had been published by the New Zealand-based Hazard Press a decade earlier.

Jill Jones.
University of Queensland Press

Jones has now published 13 full-length poetry collections. Her contemporary David Brooks, who has recently released The Other Side of Daylight: New and Selected Poems, has published five, the earliest being The Cold Front in 1983. He has also been busy during the subsequent decades publishing four novels, four short fiction collections, and seven non-fiction volumes.

Jones and Brooks are both illustrious and award-winning writers, but they have also nurtured the community around them. Jones co-ran BlackWattle Press and the journal Cargo. Brooks is a former editor of the literary journal Southerly. Both have had jobs in academia, fostering subsequent generations of writers.

In The Other Side of Daylight, Brooks recalls the Canadian poet Mark Strand gifting him his personal copy of Ezra Pound’s Personae when another couldn’t be found. He notes how the generosity he experienced as an emergent writer was something he has tried to pass on.

The other side of daylight

Poetry has been at the core of Brooks’ writing, but it cannot be forced. In Golden Tongues, he notes:

four or fivein a rushand then nothing

[…]

you turn aroundand the words aren’t there.

He describes poems as

liferising out of nowhere,needing you for something – an errand – urgently.

In an interview, Brooks observed that the 20 year gap between his first and second poetry collections was due to the influence of Czeslaw Milosz, who made him reflect on how “to situate my lyrical impulses historically, politically and metaphysically”.

Poetic affinities are part of the weave of his work, from the echo of Rainer Maria Rilke’s phrase “the other side of nature” in the title of The Other Side of Daylight to the elegies for writer friends, such as the poet Richard Deutch.

David Brooks.
University of Queensland Press

Brooks’ most recent poems, which open the volume, evoke a sense of communion with one’s environment and fellow beings that comes with time. Many speak not only of animals’ sentience, but an empathetic community that contrasts with the violence and disregard humans show towards their environment and each other.

In Romanée-Conti, for example, the poet views the obscene price of a bottle of wine within a global economy of exploitation and suffering, concluding:

The saddest and most appalling thing is that although by nowit will probably taste like an old priest’s piss,the price sounds about right.

Another poem critiques kangaroo leather through the image of kangaroos leaping towards Boston and its famous marathon. At times, there is a sense of despair at the inability to make interventions, whether by poetry (“No one is listening to the poets,” Brooks writes in Farewell to the Long Sad Party) or by deed – as in Taralga Road, where the poet tries to rescue a joey from being one more roadkill statistic.

What becomes powerful is Brooks’ capacity to redress indifference by conveying the character of animals. An Invasion of Clouds depicts a study being overtaken by a small group of sheep:

the black one, turning his back,slowly and sensually rubs his behindon the literary theory section of the bookshelf.

The sheep leaves with a final pleasurable pee “on the just-washed floor”. As a metaphor of the limitations of literary criticism, it is glorious.

Brooks’ lyricism is deeply personal, even when he is reflecting on broader historical or global patterns. “Captain Hunter and the Petrels”, for instance, frames a story of colonial survival at the expense of a bird species through an account of Brooks buying books on his way to see the late Andrew Burke, the friend and fellow poet to whom The Other Side of Daylight is dedicated.

Reading back through the volume to earlier work, we can see how Brooks’ recent poems consolidate his past thinking, and how some are paeans to enduring love. We are provided with insights into animal grief and sociability, the latter found through different forms of language, as in Each Other’s Tongue, where both man and sheep

murmur about moonlight,for a brief moment.

Another earlier poem, Damage, seems to reflect on what it might mean to be on the “other side of daylight”:

damage is […] the gapbetween what we areand what we have been thinkingthat we could be.

There is the capacity “to think of life differently” and “always greater care to be taken”. Brooks concludes that

pain and error and regret are akind of light in themselves

and that

In the dark one can sometimes seeso much more clearly than in the day.

Acrobat music

By contrast, there is no deeper symbolism in many of Jones’ poems. In This Crumbling Aura, she states:

Sometimes the dark is just the way a room isor that part of a blink that flicker of closing.

While Brooks grounds the self in partners, animals, friends and the mountains, Jones is open to a mercurial form of the self and its many versions. Her poem The Beautiful Anxiety finds that anxiety arises from the fact there is “never time to know / yourself” when one is “moving”.

“Damage,” she adds, “seems almost a necessity.”

In Possible Manners of Revelation, Jones writes:

I deface all my damage because the world won’t forgive meI recite a history of my own breath, which is the poem.

This has something of a queer resilience to it. Feeling “blue” features frequently in Jones’ poetry, but she rejects the idea of sitting with it. Instead, she favours methodological wandering and intellectual curiosity. Her “acrobat music” flies with language and change.

She navigates the absurdities and reductions of urban living. As she declares in Leaving it to the Sky:

I don’t believe in fake tans, but I could. All around are little dogs. Hail, queens of suburbia! Every so often, it’s the age of beige.

She adds:

Do I lack an overarching narrative? […] give me Iced Vo-vos, cups of strong tea, and a work ethic.

The poem Wave transposes the weaving of cars in city traffic into a series of rearranged words, finding that “with numbers, each […] is beautiful [in] its own exhaust”.

Desire features in both Brooks’ and Jones’ poetry. Where much, though not all, of the desire in Brooks’ poetry is understood through the gaze, Jones focuses on the sass and bliss of bodily movement, which she calls “our thousand dances”. She describes

all of them olderall of them younger all nowstill lifting above the roof.

[…] in fabulous style […] with these two arms.

The “best of” feel of a selected edition might wield some canonical clout, but it can also flatten a diverse oeuvre. Jones notes that Acrobat Music contains none of her longer sequences or her more linguistically experimental poems.

Yet the volume still includes prose poems, braided poems, a poem called Difficult Poem, the Sapphic fragment Some ( ) Time, and the short but wonderful ekphrastic sequence Touches / Touches Us.

The omissions have not stopped Acrobat Music from being an exhilarating new ride through Jones’ work. She has deliberately sought to disrupt a sense of chronology by grouping poems across five clusters, with a sixth section of previously unpublished poems. As she notes, the company these poems now keep might be through sound or affect as much as thematic or formal connection.

Where Brooks and Jones intersect is their detailing of everyday and intimate life as a springboard for wider reflection. The work of both poets also draws attention to environmental changes. In Easter 2016, his revision of W.B. Yeats’ Easter 1916, Brooks implores Australian culture to stop its destructive practices. Jones, in her poem Disrepair, likens our situation to being in a leaking boat that requires caulking “we’ve no time to give”, listening to “more than half-silent scrapings of midnight”. In Hope for Whole, the title poem of a 2018 anthology speaking out against Adani, she nevertheless argues for a holistic hope.

Many of the prescient and memorable poems in these two new and selected volumes stay with you long after reading. In being selected rather than complete editions, we can look forward to more from both poets. As Jones concludes in her recent poem Gone In Terrain,

Nothing isever finished. Läs mer…

Who could have predicted that after nearly 14 years of civil war and five years of stalemate, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria would collapse in just a week? With Assad’s departure, the pressing question now is what lies ahead for Syria’s immediate future.

When opposition fighters led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the major city of Aleppo in late November with minimal resistance, commentators widely believed it marked the beginning of the Assad regime’s downfall. Many anticipated a bitter fight to the end.

Assad was caught off guard, and his forces were clearly unprepared. He withdrew his remaining troops from Aleppo to regroup and gain time for reinforcements to arrive from Russia and Iran, and hope the opposition fighters would stop there.

It wasn’t to be. Emboldened by their swift success in Aleppo, HTS fighters wasted no time and advanced on Hama, capturing it with ease. They quickly followed up by seizing Homs, the next major city to the south.

Russia provided limited air support to Assad. But Iran, having depleted its forces in Hezbollah’s defence against Israel in Lebanon, was unable to offer significant assistance and withdrew its remaining personnel from Syria. Meanwhile, Assad’s frantic calls for support from Iraq did not go anywhere.

Seeing the writing on the wall, the morale of Assad’s forces and leadership plummeted. Fearing retribution in the event of the regime’s collapse, defections began en masse, further accelerating Assad’s downfall.

And on the last day, Assad fled the country, and his prime minister officially handed over power to HTS and its leadership. It marked the end of 54 years of Assad family rule in Syria.

Opposition fighters tear up a huge portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo.
Mohammed Al-Rifai/EPA

The Assad legacy

The Assad family, including Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, will likely be remembered by the majority of Syrians as brutal dictators.

The modern state of Syria was established in 1920 following the Sykes-Picot Agreement in the aftermath of the first world war. Syria became a League of Nations mandate under French control, only gaining independence in 1944. Following a tumultuous period, including a failed unification with Egypt, the Ba’ath Party seized control in 1963 through a coup that involved Hafez al-Assad.

In 1966, Hafez al-Assad led another coup alongside other officers from the Alawite minority. This ultimately resulted in a civilian regime, with Hafez al-Assad becoming president in 1970.

Hafez al-Assad portrait, taken sometime before 1987.
Library of Congress/Wikimedia Commons

Hafez al-Assad established himself as an authoritarian dictator, concentrating power, the military and the economy in the hands of his relatives and the Alawite community. Meanwhile, the Sunni majority was largely marginalised and excluded from positions of power and influence.

Hafez al-Assad is most infamously remembered for his brutal suppression of the opposition in 1982. The uprising, led by the Islamic Front, saw the opposition capture the city of Hama. In response, the Syrian army razed the city, leaving an estimated 10,000 to 40,000 civilians dead or disappeared and decisively crushing the rebellion.

Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, and, the least likely candidate, his younger son, Bashar al-Assad, assumed the presidency. Having been educated in the West to become a doctor, Bashar al-Assad projected a moderate and modern image, raising hopes he might usher in a new era of progress and democracy in Syria.

However, Bashar al-Assad soon found himself navigating a turbulent regional landscape following the September 11 2001 terror attacks and the US invasion of Iraq. In 2004, after the United States imposed sanctions on Syria, Assad sought closer ties with Turkey. He and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became friends, removing visa requirements between their countries and making plans to establish economic zones to boost trade.

Erdoğan and Assad then had a falling out during a series of events in 2011, a year that marked a turning point for Syria. The Arab Spring revolts swept into the country, presenting Assad with a critical choice: to pursue a democratic path or crush the opposition as his father had done in 1982.

He chose the latter, missing a historic opportunity to peacefully transform Syria.

The consequences were catastrophic. A devastating civil war broke out, resulting in more than 300,000 deaths (some estimates are higher), 5.4 million refugees, and 6.9 million people internally displaced. This will be Assad’s legacy.

A man rides a bicycle through Homs, Syria, in 2014. The city was devastated by the country’s civil war.
Dusan Vranic/AP

Syria’s immediate challenges

Syria now has a new force in power: HTS and its leadership, spearheaded by the militant leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. They will face immediate challenges and four key priorities:

1) Consolidating power. The new leadership will now try to ensure there are no armed groups capable of contesting their rule, particularly remnants of the old Assad regime and smaller factions that were not part of the opposition forces.

Critically, they will also need to discuss how power will be shared among the coalition of opposition groups. Al-Jolani is likely to become the founding president of the new Syria, but how the rest of the power will be distributed remains uncertain.

It seems the opposition was not prepared to take over the country so quickly, and they may not have a power-sharing agreement. This will need to be negotiated and worked out quickly.

The new government will likely recognise the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the territories it controls as an autonomous region within Syria. An independent Kurdish state, however, will be strongly opposed by Turkey, the main external backer of the opposition.

Yet, history seems to be moving in favour of the Kurds. There is now the eventual possibility of an independent Kurdish state, potentially combining northern Iraq and northeastern Syria into a single entity.

Syrian-Kurdish children stand outside their tent at a refugee camp in Suruc, on the Turkey-Syria border, in 2014..
Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

2) International recognition. Syria is a very complex and diverse place. As such, the new government can only be sustained if it gains international recognition.

The key players in this process are Turkey, the European Union, the United States and Israel (through the US). It is likely all of these entities will recognise the new government on the condition it forms a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG, and does not support Hezbollah or Hamas.

Given their unexpected success in toppling Assad so quickly, the opposition is likely to accept these conditions in exchange for aid and recognition.

3) Forming a new government. The question on everyone’s mind is what kind of political order the opposition forces will now establish. HTS and many of the groups in its coalition are Sunni Muslims, with HTS having origins linked to al-Qaeda. However, HTS broke away from the terror organisation in 2016 and shifted its focus exclusively to Syria as an opposition movement.

Nevertheless, we should not expect a democratic secular rule. The new government is also unlikely to resemble the ultra-conservative theocratic rule of the Taliban.

In his recent interview with CNN, al-Jolani made two key points. He indicated he and other leaders in the group have evolved in their outlook and Islamic understanding with age, suggesting the extreme views from their youth have moderated over time. He also emphasised the opposition would be tolerant of the freedoms and rights of religious and ethnic minority groups.

The specifics of how this will manifest remain unclear. The expectation is HTS will form a conservative government in which Islam plays a dominant role in shaping social policies and lawmaking.

On the economic and foreign policy fronts, the country’s new leaders are likely to be pragmatic, open to alliances with the regional and global powers that have supported them.

4) Rebuilding the country and maintaining unity. This is needed to prevent another civil war from erupting — this time among the winners.

A recent statement from HTS’s Political Affairs Department said the new Syria will focus on construction, progress and reconciliation. The new government aims to create positive conditions for displaced Syrians to return to their country, establish constructive relations with neighbouring countries and prioritise rebuilding the economy.

Syria and the broader Middle East have entered a new phase in their modern history. Time will tell how things will unfold, but one thing is certain: it will never be the same. Läs mer…

Who could have predicted that after nearly 14 years of civil war and five years of stalemate, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria would collapse in just a week? With Assad’s departure, the pressing question now is what lies ahead for Syria’s immediate future.

When opposition fighters led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the major city of Aleppo in late November with minimal resistance, commentators widely believed it marked the beginning of the Assad regime’s downfall. Many anticipated a bitter fight to the end.

Assad was caught off guard, and his forces were clearly unprepared. He withdrew his remaining troops from Aleppo to regroup and gain time for reinforcements to arrive from Russia and Iran, and hope the opposition fighters would stop there.

It wasn’t to be. Emboldened by their swift success in Aleppo, HTS fighters wasted no time and advanced on Hama, capturing it with ease. They quickly followed up by seizing Homs, the next major city to the south.

Russia provided limited air support to Assad. But Iran, having depleted its forces in Hezbollah’s defence against Israel in Lebanon, was unable to offer significant assistance and withdrew its remaining personnel from Syria. Meanwhile, Assad’s frantic calls for support from Iraq did not go anywhere.

Seeing the writing on the wall, the morale of Assad’s forces and leadership plummeted. Fearing retribution in the event of the regime’s collapse, defections began en masse, further accelerating Assad’s downfall.

And on the last day, Assad fled the country, and his prime minister officially handed over power to HTS and its leadership. It marked the end of 54 years of Assad family rule in Syria.

Opposition fighters tear up a huge portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo.
Mohammed Al-Rifai/EPA

The Assad legacy

The Assad family, including Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad, will likely be remembered by the majority of Syrians as brutal dictators.

The modern state of Syria was established in 1920 following the Sykes-Picot Agreement in the aftermath of the first world war. Syria became a League of Nations mandate under French control, only gaining independence in 1944. Following a tumultuous period, including a failed unification with Egypt, the Ba’ath Party seized control in 1963 through a coup that involved Hafez al-Assad.

In 1966, Hafez al-Assad led another coup alongside other officers from the Alawite minority. This ultimately resulted in a civilian regime, with Hafez al-Assad becoming president in 1970.

Hafez al-Assad portrait, taken sometime before 1987.
Library of Congress/Wikimedia Commons

Hafez al-Assad established himself as an authoritarian dictator, concentrating power, the military and the economy in the hands of his relatives and the Alawite community. Meanwhile, the Sunni majority was largely marginalised and excluded from positions of power and influence.

Hafez al-Assad is most infamously remembered for his brutal suppression of the opposition in 1982. The uprising, led by the Islamic Front, saw the opposition capture the city of Hama. In response, the Syrian army razed the city, leaving an estimated 10,000 to 40,000 civilians dead or disappeared and decisively crushing the rebellion.

Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, and, the least likely candidate, his younger son, Bashar al-Assad, assumed the presidency. Having been educated in the West to become a doctor, Bashar al-Assad projected a moderate and modern image, raising hopes he might usher in a new era of progress and democracy in Syria.

However, Bashar al-Assad soon found himself navigating a turbulent regional landscape following the September 11 2001 terror attacks and the US invasion of Iraq. In 2004, after the United States imposed sanctions on Syria, Assad sought closer ties with Turkey. He and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became friends, removing visa requirements between their countries and making plans to establish economic zones to boost trade.

Erdoğan and Assad then had a falling out during a series of events in 2011, a year that marked a turning point for Syria. The Arab Spring revolts swept into the country, presenting Assad with a critical choice: to pursue a democratic path or crush the opposition as his father had done in 1982.

He chose the latter, missing a historic opportunity to peacefully transform Syria.

The consequences were catastrophic. A devastating civil war broke out, resulting in more than 300,000 deaths (some estimates are higher), 5.4 million refugees, and 6.9 million people internally displaced. This will be Assad’s legacy.

A man rides a bicycle through Homs, Syria, in 2014. The city was devastated by the country’s civil war.
Dusan Vranic/AP

Syria’s immediate challenges

Syria now has a new force in power: HTS and its leadership, spearheaded by the militant leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. They will face immediate challenges and four key priorities:

1) Consolidating power. The new leadership will now try to ensure there are no armed groups capable of contesting their rule, particularly remnants of the old Assad regime and smaller factions that were not part of the opposition forces.

Critically, they will also need to discuss how power will be shared among the coalition of opposition groups. Al-Jolani is likely to become the founding president of the new Syria, but how the rest of the power will be distributed remains uncertain.

It seems the opposition was not prepared to take over the country so quickly, and they may not have a power-sharing agreement. This will need to be negotiated and worked out quickly.

The new government will likely recognise the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the territories it controls as an autonomous region within Syria. An independent Kurdish state, however, will be strongly opposed by Turkey, the main external backer of the opposition.

Yet, history seems to be moving in favour of the Kurds. There is now the eventual possibility of an independent Kurdish state, potentially combining northern Iraq and northeastern Syria into a single entity.

Syrian-Kurdish children stand outside their tent at a refugee camp in Suruc, on the Turkey-Syria border, in 2014..
Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

2) International recognition. Syria is a very complex and diverse place. As such, the new government can only be sustained if it gains international recognition.

The key players in this process are Turkey, the European Union, the United States and Israel (through the US). It is likely all of these entities will recognise the new government on the condition it forms a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG, and does not support Hezbollah or Hamas.

Given their unexpected success in toppling Assad so quickly, the opposition is likely to accept these conditions in exchange for aid and recognition.

3) Forming a new government. The question on everyone’s mind is what kind of political order the opposition forces will now establish. HTS and many of the groups in its coalition are Sunni Muslims, with HTS having origins linked to al-Qaeda. However, HTS broke away from the terror organisation in 2016 and shifted its focus exclusively to Syria as an opposition movement.

Nevertheless, we should not expect a democratic secular rule. The new government is also unlikely to resemble the ultra-conservative theocratic rule of the Taliban.

In his recent interview with CNN, al-Jolani made two key points. He indicated he and other leaders in the group have evolved in their outlook and Islamic understanding with age, suggesting the extreme views from their youth have moderated over time. He also emphasised the opposition would be tolerant of the freedoms and rights of religious and ethnic minority groups.

The specifics of how this will manifest remain unclear. The expectation is HTS will form a conservative government in which Islam plays a dominant role in shaping social policies and lawmaking.

On the economic and foreign policy fronts, the country’s new leaders are likely to be pragmatic, open to alliances with the regional and global powers that have supported them.

4) Rebuilding the country and maintaining unity. This is needed to prevent another civil war from erupting — this time among the winners.

A recent statement from HTS’s Political Affairs Department said the new Syria will focus on construction, progress and reconciliation. The new government aims to create positive conditions for displaced Syrians to return to their country, establish constructive relations with neighbouring countries and prioritise rebuilding the economy.

Syria and the broader Middle East have entered a new phase in their modern history. Time will tell how things will unfold, but one thing is certain: it will never be the same. Läs mer…

Giant old trees are survivors. But their size and age do not protect them against everything. They face threats such as logging or intensifying drought and fire as the climate changes.

Tasmania has long been home to plants ancient and giant. One rare shrub, King’s lomatia (Lomatia tasmanica), has been cloning itself for at least 43,000 years.

But in recent years, even some giants have succumbed. The devastating 2019 Southern Tasmanian fires killed at least 17 of the largest trees. That included the largest blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus) ever measured, the 82 metre high Strong Girl.

But giants still exist. In southern Tasmania’s Valley of the Giants (Styx Valley), there is a mountain ash (Eucalyptus regnans) named Centurion now over 100m tall. Centurion is a leading candidate for the tallest flowering plant on Earth and the tallest tree in the Southern Hemisphere. (California’s coastal redwood ‘Hyperion’ reaches 116 metres, but is a non-flowering tree).

For years, I have been drawn to Centurion as a botanical science landmark. I have climbed it, measured it, and observed it carefully. But after the 2019 fires, my colleagues and I realised the urgency of preserving physical genetic samples before the chance was lost forever. During the 2019 fires, Centurion itself narrowly escaped death. It was saved only by the efforts of firefighters.

Our recent research sequencing a high-resolution genome of Centurion turned up an intriguing finding – this giant shows greater genetic diversity than we had expected, which may boost the adaptability of the species. Finding and preserving samples of Australia’s other remaining giants will help scientists learn from these remarkable trees.

Centurion is the tallest known flowering tree.
Luke O’Brien, Author provided (no reuse)

Where Centurion stands

Giant trees are found only in a few locations in Australia, such as Victoria’s Central Highlands (mountain ash) and Western Australia’s southwest forests (red tingle, Eucalyptus jacksonii). These regions tend to have higher rainfall and less frequent fires.

Centurion is named for its height, at more than 100 metres high. But it is also at least three centuries old.

It has been lucky to survive this far. Centurion stands in a small patch of uncut state forest in a heavily logged area. Logging in the region is continuing, though nearby areas of old growth forest were added to the World Heritage area in 2013.

It was found in 2008, when forestry workers analysing aerial laser scanning data identified the tree as a 99.76 m tall giant.

In 2018, I measured its height using laser ground measurement. The living top of the tree had grown to more than 100m in height.

When I climbed Centurion, I saw the uppermost branches had actually sprouted from the side of a snapped upper stem about 90m tall. This suggests the tree could have once been significantly taller.

Branches resprouting from the lower trunk suggest the tree is taking advantage of a change in light conditions after neighbouring trees died. The resprouting abilities of Eucalyptus species mean these trees can better recover after fire – and outcompete less resilient species such as rainforest plants.

When the fires came

Strong Girl was the largest known blue gum. It perished in Tasmania’s 2019 fires.

In early 2019, I had planned to collect leaf samples from Centurion for deeper study, alongside geneticists from two universities. But then the fires came. Large tracts of southern Tasmania burned over that summer. Giants turned to charcoal. Centurion was left charred, but with a green, growing top.

After the fires burned out, we were able to collect samples from Centurion and began analysing its genetic code in the lab. My colleagues and I have now posted its genome to an open-access public server for wider use.

We used cutting-edge methods to create one of the best genetic fingerprints of a forest tree so far. It’s the first time we have documented an individual Eucalyptus including genetic contributions from both parent plants across the full length of the chromosomes. This totals nearly a billion DNA base pairs – individual “bits” of genetic information.

Centurion’s genome showed us the tree’s parents had each bequeathed it very different genetic sequences. This combination may have contributed to its extreme growth, though we don’t know for sure.

The genome reveals a surprising amount of genetic variation. In Centurion’s DNA lie new genetic sequences, deleted genes and duplicated genes. These variations suggest mountain ash trees have high adaptability. Not all trees are like this – some have very little genetic variation, or even rely on cloning. Trees bred for agriculture or forestry tend to have low genetic diversity.

Read more:
Where the old things are: Australia’s most ancient trees

Building an archive of giant eucalypts

After the 2019 fires turned some of Australia’s largest trees to ash, my colleagues and I realised the moment was urgent. If we didn’t preserve the genes of these trees, they could be lost forever.

The Strong Girl giant tree is now charred wood. Pictured: The late Derek McIntosh of the National Register of Big Trees.

The Tasmanian Herbarium now hosts our project to curate and store samples through the Giant Eucalyptus Specimen Archive project. We have sampled several of the largest remaining giants in the Styx Valley, lodging samples with the Herbarium and genomic researchers at the Australian National University.

The Tasmanian Herbarium is now preserving specimens of giant Eucalypts.
Daniel Bar-Ness, Author provided (no reuse)

Conservation – of specimens?

Mountain ash like cool, wet mountains. But as the world warms, drought and fire become more common. Recent Tasmanian bushfires have burned traditionally cooler, wetter parts of Tasmania, where rare species such as pencil pines and King Billy Pines grow.

Conserving old growth forests and their giants in national parks or World Heritage listing can only go so far in the face of these threats. This year, we have seen widespread browning and dying among eucalypts.

Preserving leaf and flower specimens costs a fraction of what it takes to keep living plants or store frozen seeds.

Future scientists may find these giant trees have some genetic talent for survival, as demonstrated by their longevity. Preserving their genes could help the species survive.

We may well need long-term preservation of specimens in Herbariums, which preserve plant material for decades or even centuries. Museums, botanical gardens, seedbanks and laboratories can also archive specimens from significant individual plants.

If the genetic stories of Earth’s ancient and giant trees are to be read in the future, we must take the time to record them and keep them safe.

Acknowledgements: Thank you to the Borevitz Lab (ANU), the Tasmanian Herbarium, and the Eucalypt Genetics Group (UTAS). This article is in memory of Tasmanian ecologist Dr Jamie Kirkpatrick (1946-2024) Läs mer…

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in early November. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others (down one).

The primary vote changes don’t suggest a two-party gain for Labor from the previous Newspoll, but the previous two Newspolls probably had Labor’s two-party estimate rounded down.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -14, with 54% dissatisfied and 40% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slid one point to -12. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 45–38 (45–41 previously).

Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll. The plus signs are the Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted. The last three Newspolls have all had Albanese below -10 net approval, so the trend line is going down.

Albanese Newspoll ratings.

While Newspoll had a slight improvement for Labor, the Resolve poll below was Labor’s worst this term, and other recent polls have been poor for them. A key finding from Resolve was that by 59–13 voters said they were worse off rather than better off since the last election.

Labor’s worst Resolve poll this term

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted December 4–8 from a sample of 1,604, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by 2022 election preference flows, a one-point gain for the Coalition from the November Resolve poll estimate. This is Labor’s worst result in Resolve this term.

Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 27% Labor (down three), 12% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up two), 11% independents (steady) and 5% others (up one).

Albanese’s net approval slumped 12 points to -26, with 57% rating him poor and 31% good. Dutton’s net approval dropped seven points to -2. Albanese and Dutton were tied as preferred PM 35–35 (a 37–37 tie in November).

By 59–13, respondents said they were worse off rather than better off since the 2022 election with 28% about the same. By 36–27, they thought the Coalition and Dutton were more likely to make them better off in the next three years than Labor and Albanese. By 56–21, they thought Labor did not have their back.

The Liberals led Labor by 41–23 on economic management (41–27 in November). On keeping the cost of living low, the Liberals led by 38–22, a big swing in their favour from 35–28 previously.

Resolve was taken after GDP figures were released last Wednesday. Negative media coverage of these figures may have affected voting intentions.

In additional questions from the November Resolve poll, voters supported the HECS funding changes that the government announced by 54–27. On university fees, 45% wanted them reduced with subsidies or caps, 26% wanted them completely scrapped and 19% kept the same.

Essential poll: Coalition regains lead

A national Essential poll, conducted November 27 to December 1 from a sample of 1,123, gave the Coalition a 48–47 lead including undecided (48–47 to Labor in mid-November). Primary votes were 35% Coalition (steady), 32% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down two), 8% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all Others (up one) and 5% undecided (steady).

The primary votes suggest little two-party change from mid-November, but respondent preferences were stronger for the Coalition.

The government was rated poor by 54–20 on increasing the amount of affordable housing, but good by 39–28 on protecting children on social media.

Over 75% thought Australia was free on religious freedom, freedom of association (right to join a union), freedom to access an abortion, freedom to protest and freedom of speech. Voters thought we had freedom from surveillance by 56–34.

Morgan poll and GDP figures

A national Morgan poll, conducted November 25 to December 1 from a sample of 1,666, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the November 18–24 Morgan poll.

Primary votes were 38.5% Coalition (up 1.5), 30% Labor (down 1.5), 12.5% Greens (steady), 6.5% One Nation (steady), 8.5% independents (steady) and 4% others (steady).

The headline figure uses respondent preferences. If preferences were allocated using 2022 election flows, there would be a 50–50 tie, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported last Wednesday that GDP grew 0.3% in the September quarter, up from 0.2% in the June quarter. In the 12 months to September, GDP increased 0.8%, its lowest since the COVID recession in 2020.

The household savings ratio improved 0.8% since June to 3.2%, implying that people were saving money from real wage growth and the stage three tax cuts, rather than spending it.

MRP poll: Coalition would win more seats than Labor

A national Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP) poll was jointly conducted by Redbridge and Accent Research from October 29 to November 20 from a sample of 4,909. MRP use modelling to estimate the outcomes of individual seats.

This MRP poll estimated the Coalition would win 64–78 of the 150 House of Representatives seats if an election had been held in November, with Labor winning 59–71. The Coalition would have an 82% chance of winning more seats than Labor, but only a 2% chance of winning the 76 seats needed for a majority.

In the first wave of this MRP poll, taken from February to May, Labor led the Coalition in a point estimate of seats by 78–56, but their lead dropped to 71–66 in August and now the Coalition has a 71–65 seat lead. Substantial swings to the Coalition in regional and outer suburban seats are driving its gains.

In the MRP poll, the Tasmanian regional seat of Lyons was likely to be a Coalition gain from Labor. However, an EMRS poll of the five federal Tasmanian seats has Labor well ahead in Lyons, particularly with new candidate the former Tasmanian state Labor leader Rebecca White. This poll was reported by The Australian on Friday.

Redbridge Victorian and NSW polls

The Poll Bludger reported on December 2 that a Redbridge Victorian state poll, conducted November 6–20 from a sample of 920, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since early October. Primary votes were 43% Coalition (up three), 30% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up two) and 13% for all Others (down five).

A byelection in the Greens-held Victorian state seat of Prahran will occur in early 2025 after the resignation of Green MP Sam Hibbins. At the November 2022 state election, the Greens defeated the Liberals by 62.0–38.0 in Prahran from primary votes of 36.4% Greens, 31.1% Liberals and 26.6% Labor. Labor won’t contest the byelection.

A Redbridge New South Wales state poll, conducted November 6–20 from a sample of 1,088, gave Labor a 50.5–49.5 lead, implying a four-point gain for the Coalition since the March 2023 state election. Primary votes were 41% Coalition, 37% Labor, 9% Greens and 13% for all Others.

South Korean and French government crises

In South Korea, the conservative president declared martial law on Tuesday, but avoided been impeached. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s PM was ousted in a parliamentary no-confidence motion. I covered these crises for The Poll Bludger on Sunday. Läs mer…

What can plants or animals do when faced with harsh conditions? Two options for survival seem most obvious: move elsewhere or adapt to their environment.

Some organisms have a third option. They can escape not through space but through time, by entering a dormant state until conditions improve.

As it turns out, dormancy may not only benefit the species who use it. In new research, we found that a propensity for dormancy may affect the balance of competition between species, and make it possible for more species to survive together when environments change.

What is dormancy?

Many organisms use dormancy as a survival strategy.

Bears hibernate in winter, for example, and many plants produce seeds in summer that lie dormant in soil over the cold months before sprouting in spring. In these examples, the organisms use dormancy to avoid a season where conditions are hard.

However, other organisms can remain inactive for decades, centuries, or even thousands of years.

The oldest known plant seeds to germinate are 2000-year-old seeds of a Judean date palm.

Even older plant material (though not seeds) has been brought back to life: placental floral tissue more than 31,000 years old, found in an ice age squirrel burrow.

In our research we focus on a particular kind of dormancy in animals called diapause, in which organisms reduce their metabolic activity and resist changes in environmental conditions. Here, animals usually do not eat or move much.

Does dormancy protect species from extinction?

In theory, dormancy can allow species to escape hostile conditions. However, it has been difficult to directly link dormancy to the persistence of a given species.

We tried to make this link by means of experiments using a kind of nematode worm often found in soil called Caenorhabditis elegans. In these worms, the genetic pathway that affects dormancy is well understood.

C. elegans and C. briggsae worms under the microscope.
Natalie Jones, CC BY

We looked at four groups of worms. The first group were genetically more inclined to enter dormancy, the second group were less inclined to enter dormancy, the third group were completely unable to enter a dormant state, and the fourth were ordinary wild-type worms with a medium propensity for dormancy.

We created an experiment where all these groups competed with a common competitor species – another worm called C. briggsae – for food in different environments.

Using data from these experiments, we then ran millions of computer simulations to determine whether one species would drive the other to extinction over the long term, or if they could coexist in different environmental conditions.

Dormancy and competition between species

We found that when species are more inclined to dormancy, competing species can coexist under a wider range of environmental conditions.

When we simulated fluctuating environmental conditions, species with a higher investment in dormancy were able to coexist with a competitor over a wider range of temperatures.

This outcome is what is predicted in theory, but it is an exciting result because the prediction has been difficult to test. The experimental system we used has great potential, and can be used to further explore the role of dormancy in species persistence.

Our results also raise an important question: will species that have a dormant form be more resilient to the huge environmental fluctuations the world is currently experiencing? Organisms that can avoid heatwaves and drought may well be more prepared for this era of unprecedented global change.

We hope to begin finding out in the next phase of our research: linking the dynamics we saw in the laboratory to dormancy in plants, animals and microbes in the real world. Läs mer…