Författare: Rss .

Guadeloupian writer Maryse Condé, who has died aged 90, left a body of work which includes many deeply nuanced and wide-ranging responses to the centuries of often violent contact between cultures and societies.

Take her bestselling pair of historical novels Segu (1984) and The Children of Segu (1985). Set in an early 19th-century royal court in what is now Mali, these books explored the profound changes brought to a highly complex society by the slave trade, the arrivals of Islam and then Christianity, and European colonialism.

Condé’s work always challenged simple solutions to complex problems. It drew upon the intersections of class, ethnicity, gender, origins and race, and the myriad competing perceptions of social status that sought to establish a basis in any of these.

Condé’s startling work won her The New Academy Prize in Literature, known as “the alternative Nobel prize”, in 2018, among many other awards. It is hard to choose which of her books are among her best, so here are five which resonate with many of our current debates about identity, memory and our troubled shared histories.

1. Tituba, Black Witch of Salem) (translated by Richard Philcox)

University of Virginia Press

Her 1986 novel Moi, Tituba sorcière… Noire de Salem(published in English as Tituba, Black Witch of Salem with a foreword by American feminist activist and thinker Angela Davis) is considered by some to be the greatest novels about slavery, power and perceptions of witchcraft.

The story draws in part upon what remains in the historical record of a young woman called Tituba, who was sold into slavery in the Caribbean and then North America in the late 17th century. Tituba was among the first women to be accused of witchcraft during the Salem witch trials.

Condé crafts a richly imagined life for Tituba, setting the first half of the book in the brutal violence of the slave economy in Barbados. The second half is set in Boston and Salem, where a more insidious violence is politely buried under layers of hypocrisy before exploding in the Salem persecutions.

Condé’s novel speaks powerfully to the divisive legacies of slavery and colonialism, as well as to the growing awareness that what counts as “knowledge” – in the novel, as opposed to “witchcraft” – has not been decided equally.

2. Crossing the Mangrove (translated by Richard Philcox)

Penguin Classics

The complexity of Caribbean identity is at the heart of Crossing the Mangrove (1989) Each chapter is narrated by a different character as they attend the night-long wake of the mysterious Francis Sancher.

In this short novel, the rich diversity of this one small community is set out, with class, colour, education, gender, history and political commitment all playing a part in the characters’ thoughts of the deceased Sancher, of themselves, and of each other.

Secrets, blind spots, lies and prejudices emerge over the course of the night. Some will be revealed to the community, but some are only clear to the reader. Condé portrays the rich diversity of Caribbean society, alongside the universal experience of loss and grief.

Some have linked the title to Lord Alfred Tennyson’s poem Crossing the Bar (1889), which is interpreted by some as an elegy about passing into the afterlife. Others have pointed to the difficulty of moving through a mangrove, with its multidirectional roots, which could be seen as a metaphor for the complexity of identity.

3. Heremakhonon (translated by Richard Philcox)

Three Continents Press

Condé also explored the idea of roots in her first novel, Heremakhonon (1976), a novel that traces the itinerary of a young black Guadeloupian woman who absorbed the lesson both from her family and from the French education system that she was “French”.

Yet when she arrives in Paris to continue her studies, she is told she is really African, and should go there to find her authentic roots. She does so, only to be told she is not truly African, but Caribbean.

Condé writes with verve and a great deal of acute social critique, pointing to what happens to an individual when their identity is dragged into grand theoretical ideas of any stripe.

4. Tales From the Heart: True Stories From My Childhood (translated by Richard Philcox)

Soho Press

Condé returned to these themes in several of her autobiographical texts, particularly Le cœur à rire et à pleurer : souvenirs de mon enfance (2001), published in English in as Tales From the Heart: True Stories From My Childhood . She describes her childhood in a comfortable middle-class Guadeloupian family and her gradual political awakening to what her brother calls “alienation”.

In the book she writes of how her parents fetishise and impose on their children a certain fantasy version of metropolitan white French culture. They disdain Guadeloupian culture, the Créole language and any connection to a Black identity.

Towards the end of the book, the teenage Condé realises “I was a ‘black skin, white mask’ and Frantz Fanon was going to write a book with me in mind”. Here Condé references the seminal text, Black Skin, White Masks, by the Martinican theorist and psychiatrist Frantz Fanon, which explored the effects of colonialism and racism on the psyche, and the experiences of people of colour in a white-dominated world.

5. The Journey of a Caribbean Writer (translated by Richard Philcox)

One of Condé’s last books, The Journey of a Caribbean Writer (2014), collects some of her lectures and essays, along with two previously unpublished texts.

It gathers many of her thoughts on the relationships between the Caribbean and Africa; the space the sociologist Paul Gilroy called the Black Atlantic. This describes the mixing of black cultures with other cultures from around the Atlantic; diaspora and globalisation; and the happenstance of the places we are born and the languages and cultures we inherit and encounter.

This book alone is a worthy introduction to the work of one of the most complex, most honest, and yet most engaging and hopeful of contemporary thinkers. Läs mer…

In the era of social media and 24 hour news cycles, people expect instant, up to the minute information. However, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez chose to announce a five day pause in his duties via a lengthy four page letter. He will use this time to reflect on whether he will remain at the head of Spain’s government following a corruption investigation being opened into his wife, Begoña Gómez.

In doing so, he has sparked a crisis of government in which he already has the upper hand, controlling both the timing and the agenda of political debate.

As expected, the announcement dominated the front pages of Spanish newspapers, and hit the headlines in many international media outlets. Once again, Sánchez has made himself the epicentre of public opinion.

His missive is not a love letter, nor does it strike the melancholy tone of a person on the verge of quitting. While it does mention his love for his wife, and he did seem genuinely upset in the parliamentary session in which the investigation into his wife was revealed, the letter is filled with epithets directed at the far right and other political adversaries, all of whom have contributed to the current parliamentary scrap.

Spain is living in divided, polarised times. Half the country will most likely see the letter as an act of desperation: with the writing on the wall, Sánchez is choosing to bow out instead of being unceremoniously ousted. The other half will speak of the injustices of “lawfare”, and of the right wing media getting carried away with itself.

Though Spain has ceased to be a formally two party system, there are still two clearly defined poles in society. This division hampers society’s ability to interpret political situations as a whole, and complicates the issue of trust and support for institutional justice systems.

A master of suspense

Sánchez is a risk taker, as proven by his daring move in 2023 of bringing national elections forward by 5 months. Few can match his capacity for suspense and catching his enemies off guard, but his audacity is measured: he is not one for leaps into the unknown.

One possible explanation for his most recent move could be that he knows the newly opened investigation is based on shaky or fabricated information, meaning he can cause a stir, play the victim and mobilise those around him before reemerging, triumphant, on Monday. The alternative is that he plans on resigning, leaving Spain to face the possibility of yet another round of elections.

Either way, these events will take place right at the start of the Catalan election campaigns in May, and only 40 days out from the European elections in June.

Setting the agenda: the media’s influence on public opinion

The media’s impact on electoral behaviour has been studied for decades. Early on, it was believed that the media controlled public attitudes directly, much like a syringe injecting information and ideas under people’s skin.

People then came to believe that the media’s had little effect on electoral behaviour and citizens’ opinions, as people would limit or filter their own media exposure, or consume media based on pre-existing biases.

We now understand that mass media does not directly dictate the public’s attitudes. Instead, it indirectly influences them, defining the boundaries of public discussion by prioritising certain topics. This is known in communication theory as “agenda setting”.

By influencing what is relevant and what is not, the media can highlight or silence certain topics, giving them control over public discussion, debate and opinion. They do not tell people what to think, but by illuminating certain issues and hiding others, they tell people what to think about.

The media therefore acts as a spotlight: if certain figures are highlighted, people focus on them and think about them. This theory was developed by Maxwell McCombs and Donald Shaw, who identified that in choosing and displaying news, journalists and editors play an important role in shaping political reality. When consuming media, readers and viewers learn more than information about a given topic: they also learn how much attention and priority to give that topic based on the amount of information in a news item, and how many seconds of video or lines of newsprint are dedicated to it.

Agenda setting plays a fundamental role in political campaigns. It influences what the public considers important, the ranking of issues, the visibility of key actors, and thus their perceptions of the candidates and the political issues at stake.

Shaking things up with a view to the next elections

The mark of a successful political leader is the ability to steer media attention towards their own messages and priorities. It is likely, for example, that Sánchez’s actions, which are keeping the country (and its institutions) in thrall, will end up drawing attention to Catalan Socialist Party candidate Salvador Illa in the upcoming regional election campaign, though elections in the region have their own set of unique dynamics. Indeed, opinion polls have already shown a sharp uptick in Illa’s vote share in recent days.

In the same vein, Sánchez’s headline-grabbing hiatus may raise his own profile as president of Socialist International in European elections, where the right is poised to make significant gains.

Sánchez has been a prominent leader, and has been widely attacked by his political opponents. However, these attacks have had the unintended effect of making him the centre of attention, allowing him to set the agenda and guide public debate and perceptions. For Sánchez, what people say about him is neither here nor there: the amount that is said about him is far more important.

Campaign managers take great strides to put their candidates centre stage, and a controversial candidate makes this easy. Spain is currently facing two very important sets of elections in Catalonia and the European parliament. Influence over both will depend on candidates’ abilities to present and manage the elections as a simple dilemma: “Pedro Sánchez. Yes or no?” Läs mer…

When you think about economic activities that society tends to frown on – like offering bribes, paying for the services of a sex worker or even selling human organs – “trust” and “loyalty” might not be the first things that come to mind. But these seemingly positive characteristics play a key role in letting people disguise illicit transactions as something more socially acceptable, my colleague Gabriel Rossman and I recently found in a series of experiments.

As a professor of management who leads the University of Arizona’s Center for Trust Studies, I’ve long been interested in how people conceal illicit economic activity. One important way is through what scholars call “obfuscation” – hiding the true nature of an exchange to avoid social judgment or legal scrutiny. For example, a person who wants to hire a sex worker may disguise their payment as a more socially acceptable “gift,” while someone who wants to bribe a politician may instead make a “campaign contribution.”

Through our experiments, we investigated the strategies people use to mask morally questionable transactions – what researchers call “obfuscated disreputable exchanges.” We found that people decide to engage in these shady activities based on how much they trust the other person they’re working with.

In our experiments, we put 1,276 participants in the shoes of a real estate developer whose building permit application needs an exception to the zoning ordinance. Participants were then told that the city building inspector’s pickup truck had broken down, and that if they bought him a new one, he might be more inclined to grease the wheels for their application.

We found that participants were more likely to choose this option – an obfuscated exchange – instead of inaction or outright bribery when they believed they could trust their counterpart. We also found that the type of trust matters: When trust is based on belief in the other person’s loyalty, people are more willing to proceed with the gift. However, when trust stems from a belief in the other’s ethical standards, they hesitate, fearing the moral implications of their actions.

Why it matters

In the shadows of the legitimate market, a different kind of economy thrives – one dominated by the transfer of goods and services that society considers morally wrong. Our study probes this hidden economy, examining how individuals navigate transactions that are cloaked in moral ambiguity. In addition to helping us understand the mechanisms of these illicit exchanges, our work offers fundamental insights into human behavior and social norms.

Our findings point to a basic fact: People want to pursue their own self-interest while also being liked by others. When those two goals conflict, there’s a strong temptation to put up a false appearance of respectability. And trust plays a key role in making that happen.

One important implication of our research is that trust has a dark side. This runs contrary to the positive view of trust that many researchers have, thanks to its role in encouraging cooperation and reducing transaction costs. Our investigation shows that trust can also have effects that are less socially desirable – such as enabling bribery.

Trust can play conflicting roles because it has two fundamental dimensions: loyalty and ethics. Loyalty refers to someone’s goodwill and their desire to help, while ethics has to do with acceptable principles – notably rectitude and truthfulness – that a person subscribes to. Both play an important role in shaping whether people are viewed as trustworthy.

People often believe that loyalty and ethics go hand in hand. This makes some sense: If someone acts ethically toward their community, it’s reasonable to assume they would honor their commitments to an individual, too. However, this connection breaks down during disreputable exchanges. Our work shows that people are more willing to engage in shady business with those who demonstrate loyalty-based trustworthiness and less likely with those whose trustworthiness is grounded in a sense of ethics.

Another intriguing facet of our findings is that loyalty-based trustworthiness – as opposed to trustworthiness rooted in ethics – reduces moral discomfort, or the negative feelings associated with morally inappropriate action. Each party adjusts their sense of what it means to be good if they trust that the other won’t judge them for a bit of wickedness.

What still isn’t known

Our investigation opens up new avenues of inquiry about how trust works in morally gray markets. It raises questions about the fragility of trust in these contexts, the impact of changing social norms on what people consider morally acceptable, and the broader implications for our understanding of trust and morality in society.

As researchers continue to uncover the layers of trust that underpin the shadow economy, these questions invite us to reflect on how people negotiate the tension between personal gain and community moral standards – a dynamic that shapes not just hidden economies but the very fabric of society. Läs mer…

Once known only to those studying biology, the word symbiosis is now widely used. Symbiosis is the intimate relationship of different species living together. It’s much more common and older than many of us might realise.

One of the most common symbiotic relationships is between various species of algae and fungi, or between cyanobacteria (commonly known as blue-green algae though it’s not algae) and fungi. These paired species take the form of lichens.

The term symbiosis was first used in the 19th century to describe the lichen relationship, which was thought to be highly unusual. Since then, we’ve discovered symbiosis is the norm, rather than the exception. In fact, it has shaped the evolution of most life on Earth.

Clownfish and anenomes have one of the best-known symbiotic relationships between animals.
melissaf84/Shutterstock

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Symbiosis is almost everywhere we look

Lichens are diverse. They grow on tree trunks, on roof tiles and on ancient rocks.

The symbiosis of two different species allows both to survive in environments they might not be able to colonise otherwise. The fungus provides a suitable environment for its partnering species of algae or cyanbacteria to grow – it might otherwise be too exposed or dry, for example. In return, the fungus gets to share some of the carbohydrates produced by photosynthesis.

This is an example where both partners benefit from their relationship. It’s called mutualistic symbiosis.

Lichens are often very good indicators of air quality and more general ecosystem health. Their absence can indicate poor air quality. Because they absorb air pollutants such as heavy metals they can be used as biomonitors.

Read more:
Mosses and lichens come to the rescue in battle against air pollution

In another very common example of mutualistic symbiosis, most plant species live in a close relationship with fungi in the soil. It’s known as a mycorrhizal association.

The plants harness the energy in sunlight to make sugar from water and carbon dioxide in the process called photosynthesis. The plants share this food with the fungus, which relies on them for survival. In return, the fine threads of the fungus greatly increase the surface area of the plant roots for absorbing water and nutrients.

A microscopic view of a rice plant root showing the threads of a mycorrhizal fungus.
melissaf84/Shutterstock

Read more:
The ancient, intimate relationship between trees and fungi, from fairy toadstools to technicolour mushrooms

Not all partners benefit

Not all symbiotic relationships benefit both partners.

In parasitic symbiosis, one partner benefits at the expense of the other. Examples include the fungi Phytophthora, Fusarium and Armilleria, which often kill their plant hosts.

In cases of commensalism, one organism benefits and the other neither gains nor loses. Small birds, for example, sometimes perch on large herbivores, eating insects disturbed by the larger animals.

As in any relationship, it’s possible things can change over time. For example, a mutualistic symbiosis between a tree and its mycorrhizal fungus might change to parasitism as the tree ages and declines, or if environmental conditions change.

The relationship between mistletoe and its host plant can be complex and change with the conditions.
Ken Griffiths/Shutterstock

Read more:
At a time of giving and receiving, our many Australian mistletoes do it too

Symbiosis has driven evolution

Symbiosis has played a huge role in the evolution of life. The cells that make up the bodies of animals and plants are the result of symbiotic relationships.

Cells are complex. They contain structures called organelles, such as the nucleus (the control centre of the cell) and mitochondrion (involved in cellular respiration, which uses oxygen to break down food molecules to make energy available). Plant cells also contain chloroplasts, the sites of photosynthesis.

These complex cells evolved from much simpler, ancient forms of life that came together symbiotically.

The organelles of complex cells were once single-celled life forms that survived being engulfed by other simple cells. They formed a more complex and efficient cell, which has become the basic cell type for large multicellular life forms.

All large multi-cellular organisms living on Earth – animal and plant – possess this type of cell. It’s proof of how successful this evolutionary symbiotic strategy has been.

Cell respiration in both plant and animal cells involves mitochondria, which indicates they were engulfed early in evolutionary history. Later a cell type already containing mitochondria engulfed the chloroplast. This led to the evolution of complex plants.

Read more:
Explainer: why can’t humans photosynthesise?

When two become one

The incorporation of one cell type into another is called endosymbiosis. It allowed cells and parts of cells to become highly specialised. This specialisation improved their efficiency and capacity to survive under a wider range of conditions.

When I was a postgraduate botany student in the late ’70s, colleagues one day brought samples of common sea lettuce, Ulva latuca, to the laboratory, where I was studying photosynthetic physiology. Sea lettuce is a seaweed found in many shallow waters around the Australian coast.

We noticed a little marine slug grazing on the plant, so we popped it into our system for studying photosynthesis. To our surprise the slug was photosynthesising! We discovered the slug partly digested the sea lettuce cells, but some chloroplasts passed through the lining of the slug’s gut and continued to photosynthesise.

We thought we had made an important discovery, only to learn others had published similar work. After that I never doubted the validity of endosymbiosis, which was still a controversial theory at the time.

Chloroplasts can continue photosynthesising inside the body of sea slugs that absorb them when grazing on algae.
Sarah Frost/Shutterstock

Symbiosis turns out to be the norm

We now know symbiosis is the norm for most organisms, including humans.

Our gut flora represent symbiosis on a massive scale. The diversity and huge numbers of bacteria living happily in our gut can have a huge impact on our general health and wellbeing. In the case of a healthy gut, both the person and the bacteria do well out of the relationship: a nice example of mutualistic symbiosis.

COVID focused public attention on viruses. But not all viruses are harmful; many actually benefit the organisms they infect. Some viruses even protect us from disease-causing viruses. For example, in people who are HIV-positive the disease progresses more slowly in those who are also infected with GB virus C (GBV-C).

Of course, the full range of symbiotic relationships with viruses is possible, from mutual benefit to an infected host suffering great harm. And, as with bacteria, there is accumulating evidence viruses have helped many species evolve, including our own.

An organism must live within a complex set of relationships to survive and thrive in any environment. Some relationships will be more positive than others, but it should not surprise that mutualistic symbiosis is so often the key to success. Läs mer…

“Childhood” and “dementia” are two words we wish we didn’t have to use together. But sadly, around 1,400 Australian children and young people live with currently untreatable childhood dementia.

Broadly speaking, childhood dementia is caused by any one of more than 100 rare genetic disorders. Although the causes differ from dementia acquired later in life, the progressive nature of the illness is the same.

Half of infants and children diagnosed with childhood dementia will not reach their tenth birthday, and most will die before turning 18.

Yet this devastating condition has lacked awareness, and importantly, the research attention needed to work towards treatments and a cure.

Read more:
Playing a musical instrument or singing in a choir may boost your brain – new study

More about the causes

Most types of childhood dementia are caused by mutations (or mistakes) in our DNA. These mistakes lead to a range of rare genetic disorders, which in turn cause childhood dementia.

Two-thirds of childhood dementia disorders are caused by “inborn errors of metabolism”. This means the metabolic pathways involved in the breakdown of carbohydrates, lipids, fatty acids and proteins in the body fail.

As a result, nerve pathways fail to function, neurons (nerve cells that send messages around the body) die, and progressive cognitive decline occurs.

Childhood dementia is linked to rare genetic disorders.
maxim ibragimov/Shutterstock

What happens to children with childhood dementia?

Most children initially appear unaffected. But after a period of apparently normal development, children with childhood dementia progressively lose all previously acquired skills and abilities, such as talking, walking, learning, remembering and reasoning.

Childhood dementia also leads to significant changes in behaviour, such as aggression and hyperactivity. Severe sleep disturbance is common and vision and hearing can also be affected. Many children have seizures.

The age when symptoms start can vary, depending partly on the particular genetic disorder causing the dementia, but the average is around two years old. The symptoms are caused by significant, progressive brain damage.

Are there any treatments available?

Childhood dementia treatments currently under evaluation or approved are for a very limited number of disorders, and are only available in some parts of the world. These include gene replacement, gene-modified cell therapy and protein or enzyme replacement therapy. Enzyme replacement therapy is available in Australia for one form of childhood dementia. These therapies attempt to “fix” the problems causing the disease, and have shown promising results.

Other experimental therapies include ones that target faulty protein production or reduce inflammation in the brain.

Read more:
20% of children have developmental delay. What does this mean for them, their families and the NDIS?

Research attention is lacking

Death rates for Australian children with cancer nearly halved between 1997 and 2017 thanks to research that has enabled the development of multiple treatments. But over recent decades, nothing has changed for children with dementia.

In 2017–2023, research for childhood cancer received over four times more funding per patient compared to funding for childhood dementia. This is despite childhood dementia causing a similar number of deaths each year as childhood cancer.

The success for childhood cancer sufferers in recent decades demonstrates how adequately funding medical research can lead to improvements in patient outcomes.

Dementia is not just a disease of older people.
Miljan Zivkovic/Shutterstock

Another bottleneck for childhood dementia patients in Australia is the lack of access to clinical trials. An analysis published in March this year showed that in December 2023, only two clinical trials were recruiting patients with childhood dementia in Australia.

Worldwide however, 54 trials were recruiting, meaning Australian patients and their families are left watching patients in other parts of the world receive potentially lifesaving treatments, with no recourse themselves.

That said, we’ve seen a slowing in the establishment of clinical trials for childhood dementia across the world in recent years.

Read more:
Dementia can be predicted more than a decade before diagnosis with these blood proteins

In addition, we know from consultation with families that current care and support systems are not meeting the needs of children with dementia and their families.

New research

Recently, we were awarded new funding for our research on childhood dementia. This will help us continue and expand studies that seek to develop lifesaving treatments.

More broadly, we need to see increased funding in Australia and around the world for research to develop and translate treatments for the broad spectrum of childhood dementia conditions.

Dr Kristina Elvidge, head of research at the Childhood Dementia Initiative, and Megan Maack, director and CEO, contributed to this article. Läs mer…

The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample of 1,092 people, gave the Liberal National Party a 56–44% lead over Labor, a four-point gain for the LNP since the early October 2023 YouGov poll.

Primary votes were 44% LNP (up three points), 27% Labor (down six), 15% Greens (up two), 10% One Nation (up two) and 4% for all others (down one).

Labor Premier Steven Miles had a -22 net approval rating, compared with former Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s -20 rating in the October poll, with 47% of those polled dissatisfied with his performance and 25% satisfied.

This is the worst net approval for a Queensland premier in YouGov polls for The Courier Mail.

LNP leader David Crisafulli’s net approval was +14, up three points from October. Crisafulli led Miles as better premier by 40–27% (he was 37–35% against Palaszczuk in the October poll).

Asked who they would prefer as premier between Miles and Palaszczuk, voters backed Miles by 53–47%. Labor voters supported Palaszczuk by 51–49%, while LNP voters favoured Miles by 57–43%.

In March, a Newspoll gave the LNP a 54–46% lead over Labor, and there were massive swings to the LNP at two Queensland state byelections.

Labor has governed in Queensland since an upset victory at the January 2015 election. But the party is now facing a heavy defeat at the October election after almost ten years in power.

Labor extends lead in federal YouGov poll

A national YouGov poll, conducted April 19–23 from a sample of 1,514 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a one-point gain since March. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two points), 33% Labor (up one), 13% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 10% for all others (steady).

Respondents were given two statements regarding Australian military commitments:

Australians have died for Australia, and we should also be prepared to fight for our country’s values if called upon.

We should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia.

Overall, voters favoured the prepared to fight statement by 46–42%. However, younger age groups were far more inclined to be sceptical than older people. Those aged 25–34 favoured the sceptical statement by 50–34%, while those 65 and older favoured the prepared to fight statement by 60–34%.

On Monday, I covered drops for Labor in the Resolve, Freshwater and Morgan polls. Polls released since then have been better for Labor – the party improved in YouGov and regained the lead in Morgan.

In economic data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the March quarter inflation report on Wednesday. While the 12-month inflation rate slowed from 4.1% in December to 3.6% in March, the quarterly inflation was 1.0% in March, up from 0.6% in December. Persistent inflation probably explains Labor’s mediocre poll ratings.

Essential poll: Coalition regains lead as One Nation surges

A national Essential poll, conducted April 17–21 from a sample of 1,145 people, gave the Coalition a 49–47% lead over Labor (including undecided voters) – a reversal of Labor’s 48–46% lead in early April.

Primary votes were 35% Coalition (up one point), 31% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down three), 9% One Nation (up three), 1% UAP (down one), 9% for all others (up one) and 4% undecided (down two). Analyst Kevin Bonham said this is the highest One Nation
primary vote from any pollster this term.

Albanese’s net approval was steady since February at -5, with 48% disapproving of his performance and 43% approving. Dutton’s net approval jumped seven points to +3, with Bonham saying this is Dutton’s first positive net approval from any pollster this term. However, Newspoll gave Dutton a net approval of -15.

On Israel’s military action in Gaza, 32% said Israel should permanently withdraw (down five points since March), 19% favoured a temporary ceasefire (down one), and 19% said Israel’s action was justified (up one). By 29–24%, voters supported recognising Palestine as an independent state.

By a 49–26% margin, voters thought the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy would have a positive impact on Australia as a whole, but were less positive about the personal impact (36–23% positive). And by a 52–31% margin, voters supported Australia developing nuclear energy (compared to 50–33% in October).

Asked which type of energy was most expensive, 40% said renewables (up two points since October), 36% nuclear (up two) and 24% fossil fuels (down four).

By 50–38%, voters thought it unlikely Australia would reach net-zero emissions by 2050 (compared to 57–31% in October).

Morgan poll: Labor regains lead

A national Morgan poll, conducted April 15–21 from a sample of 1,617 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a reversal of a 51–49% Coalition lead from the previous week.

Primary votes were 35.5% Coalition (down three points), 30.5% Labor (up 0.5), 16% Greens (up 2.5), 5.5% One Nation (steady), 7.5% independents (steady) and 5% others (steady).

Additional questions from Newspoll and Resolve

I previously covered the last Newspoll and Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. Recently, Albanese announced a plan to have taxpayer money used for loans and subsidies for projects to help Australia transition to clean energy. Voters backed this plan in Newspoll by 56–38%.

When asked about the Israel-Gaza conflict in the Resolve poll, 46% of voters agreed it had made Australia less safe, compared to 40% in March. By a 61–12% margin, voters thought there had been a rise in racism and religious intolerance in Australia as a result of the conflict (compared to 57–15% in March).

On who Australia should support, 57% (up 12 points since November) said we should take no action, 17% support Israel (down 14) and 9% support Gaza (up two). Läs mer…

There’s been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Israel-Palestinian conflict and China. But there’s one more country closely watching the race: Iran.

Another Trump presidency could pose immense risks for the Iranian leadership, especially given the recent tit-for-tat strikes with Israel, the looming threat of a wider Middle East war, and other significant internal challenges.

Under such conditions, there are three ways a new Trump administration might pose a threat to the clerical establishment: a potential economic shock, bolder military action against the regime and increased protest movements.

Read more:
Should world leaders worry about another Trump presidency?

Renewed economic pressure

In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and imposed crippling sanctions on the country as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign on the Iranian government.

Iran’s then-vice president, Eshagh Jahangiri, described the subsequent year as the “toughest” since the Islamic Republic’s inception. Trump’s campaign reduced Iran’s oil exports to a historic low of under 400,000 barrels per day, significantly slashing the country’s petrodollars, which represent about 70% of government revenues. Moreover, between 2018 and 2020, Iran’s national currency depreciated by more than 600%.

After Joe Biden was elected president in 2020, Iran has managed to increase its oil exports. It was recently reported that Iran’s oil exports have reached a six-year high of around 1.56 million barrels per day in the first three month of 2024. Republicans in the US blame the Biden administration for not enforcing sanctions against Iran, while the White House insists they are.

With Iran’s economy still weakened, Trump’s potential return could bring a new wave of pressure. Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture has noted, for instance, that a Trump return will cause Iran’s oil exports to “suffer again”.

The head of Iran’s Parliament Research Centre has also highlighted the country’s current budget deficit of US$3.7 billion, warning a Trump return would necessitate being ready for “increased sanctions pressure and an economic shock”.

Another economics expert, Morteza Afghe, struck a more dire note when he warned of a potential “collapse of Iran’s economy”. Due to Iran’s more strident anti-Western policies under President Ebrahim Raisi and the dominance of radical factions in parliament, Afghe believes Trump would be even more determined to escalate his “maximum pressure” campaign on the country.

There are concrete signs of this nervousness already – Trump’s sweep of the Republican nominating contests earlier this year coincided with a 20% fall in the value of the Iranian rial.

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Security implications

On the security front, Trump’s possible return is reminding the Iranian leadership of a significant loss under his presidency: the 2020 killing of General Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, in a US airstrike.

When he was killed, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, described Soleimani as the architect behind the Iran-backed militia networks in the Middle East, known as the “axis of resistance”. Khamenei also said he “bows to Soleimani” for his achievements with the Quds Force. This illustrates the profound impact the US strike had on Iran’s security interests.

A recent Israeli airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria’s capital this month also killed seven members of the Quds force, including two generals. This led to Iran’s unprecedented retaliatory attack against Israel, which Trump responded to by reposting a threatening tweet from 2018.

He also said at a rally:

[Israel is] under attack right now. That’s because we show great weakness. […] It would not have happened if we were in office.

Given this rhetoric and the heightened tensions with Israel, a potential Trump return could make the Iranian leadership feel even more vulnerable. It could, for instance, lead to increased US or Israeli military action against Iranian proxy militias in Iraq and Syria, or potentially bolder strikes against Iran itself.

Even before the recent Israel-Iran tensions, Mehdi Mohammadi, an advisor to Iran’s parliament speaker on strategic affairs, said Iran’s national security could face “very difficult” years under another Trump presidency, reintroducing the prospect of “maximum threats” against Tehran.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, flanked by Iranian IRGC and Army generals, at the annual Army Day in Tehran this month.
Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA

Increasing unrest at home

Elections were held earlier this year for Iran’s parliament and the Assembly of Experts, the body that appoints the supreme leader. The official voter turnout was reported at just 41%. In the capital of Tehran, turnout was only 24%, the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic.

This marks the third time in four years — including two parliamentary elections and one presidential election — in which voter turnout was below 50%. Prior to 2020, voter turnout typically exceeded 60% or even 70%.

Given these declining rates of voter participation and three major, nationwide protest movements since 2017, Iran’s leadership is in the midst of the most serious legitimacy crisis in the Islamic Republic’s history.

This has coincided with the 2021 election of the hardliner Raisi as president and this year’s election, in which radical factions strengthened their position by winning many seats in the new parliament. These lawmakers want Iran to more forcefully challenge the US and its allies and implement even harsher restrictions on domestic life, including stronger internet censorship and enforcement of Sharia law.

Within the country, media outlets have suggested the rise of unpopular, ultraconservative political figures could further deepen public dissatisfaction with the regime. In such conditions, possible economic repercussions from a second Trump presidency could fuel a new wave of nationwide protests in the country.

And if Trump is elected, Iran’s supreme leader would be about 86 years old when he took office. A transfer of power in Iran during a Trump presidency could bring even more uncertainty at a very critical time in Iranian politics. Läs mer…