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In April 2024 the Department for Education announced that there were “no plans” to change single-word Ofsted judgments. These give schools inspected by the education standards regulator an overall rating of outstanding, good, requires improvement or inadequate.

In doing so, the government has decided to ignore a consensus of heavyweight opinion in favour of abolishing single-word judgments. These include the House of Commons Education Committee, which has said in a recent report that the Department of Education and Ofsted “should work together as a priority to develop an alternative to the current single-word overall judgement”.

The voices against single-word judgments are also made up of teachers, headteachers and a former Ofsted chief inspector, as well as the family of Ruth Perry, a headteacher who tragically died by suicide following the downgrade of her school from outstanding to inadequate.

The government’s decision may seem hard to fathom. I am a former Ofsted inspector and now carry out research on school inspections, and talk to serving and former Ofsted inspectors. My view, too, is that these judgments should be abolished. And I believe that the government’s choice is more about ease of control of the education system than what is best for schools, teachers or parents.

Following Ruth Perry’s death, the government gave the impression it was open to negotiation on moving away from one word judgements. Ofsted embarked on a “Big Listen” consultation exercise to hear views on its practice, reporting, culture and impact.

But a change to these judgments is dismissed in the government’s response to the Education Select Committee’s report. This states that “there are significant benefits from having an Ofsted overall effectiveness grade.”

It’s worth exploring what the government considers these significant benefits to be, given they have won out over professional and expert recommendation.

Easy answers

The government claims that the single-word judgments offer “a succinct and accurate summary for parents”. It says that they allow for trends across the country to be observed, and show when more in-depth inspections are needed.

In other words, the single word judgement is a slick, efficient management tool which provides the Department for Education with a read out to understand a school’s performance and when it needs to step in.

Ofsted rating on a sign for a primary school in Warwickshire.
Colin Underhill / Alamy Stock Photo

The government’s response to the Education Committee’s report also says that without a single-word system, “views and decisions about schools and their performance would continue to be made, and there would continue to be consequences to inspection”. The government’s position is that it is better for these views and consequences to be linked to Ofsted’s findings, rather than “civil servants, politicians and the media looking through the narrative of reports and drawing their own conclusions”.

To my mind, this view exposes the government’s thinking that it has a monopoly of wisdom – and reveals its disinterest in nuanced discussion.

In my view, though, there is another reason why the government is so committed to single-word judgments. They allow closer control of a market-based education system that has been moved from local authority to central government control.

The 2010 Academies Act changed the set up of the English education system. Rather than being run by local authorities, most of the powers and duties for England’s schools have moved to a network of multi-academy trusts. These trusts are overseen by a set of regional directors who report to government ministers.

The academies policy was intended to increase competition and create a market-based system. Schools were to be freed from local authority control, enabling them to operate semi-autonomously within the state system. The best schools could expand and take over weaker neighbours. They were not obliged to follow the National Curriculum and could innovate radically.

But the move to academisation has led to an accumulation of powers by the Department for Education.

To enable a centrally-run, a market-based education system to stand a chance of functioning, the government needs data. This means performance measures and an inspection regime which allows school status and performance to be viewed easily.

A narrow database of school test and exam results and two day inspections make the system manageable. They avoid the complexities which professionals know characterise schools and how to improve them.

Ofsted could contribute to a less performative system of school improvement, one with less weighing and measuring and more school improvement advice, high quality teacher training and a recognition that one size does not fit all.

Instead, the government has chosen simplicity and ease of message over teacher welfare and compassion and a genuine debate over what a good school really looks like. Läs mer…

Thirty years ago, while counting barnacles, limpets and seaweeds along rocky shores, I started noticing a daily tide of litter, mostly plastic. As a marine biology PhD student at Liverpool University, I kept removing it, but the next day, there’d be more.

I’m now a leading international expert on microplastics, a term I coined on May 7 2004 to describe fragments of plastic measuring as small as a millionth of a metre. As I work to help reduce the grip of plastic pollution on our planet, the solutions are clear to me.

Regulators, governments and citizens all urgently need to turn off the tide of plastic pollution at its source by reducing the production of plastics. But having just returned from the UN global plastics treaty negotiations in Ottawa, Canada, it’s frustrating to see the lack of consensus among nations about how to address this global problem.

Disturbed by the scale of the plastic contamination I first noticed on that beach in 1993, I felt compelled to act. I recruited students and the local community to help with the annual Marine Conservation Society’s beach clean. We recorded what we found on printed templates.

Back then, a new tool was just becoming available for data compilation: the Excel spreadsheet. The budding scientist within drove me to tabulate what we removed, based on the categories on the printed templates that included bottles, bags, rope and netting. Suddenly, it struck me that the most numerous items had no category. Fragments of larger plastic items, which appeared by far the most numerous were not being recorded. I got curious and wondered what the smallest plastic pieces on the shore were.

Richard Thompson realised that mechanical degradation of large, visible fragments of plastic resulted in the accumulation of tiny microplastics in the environment.
University of Plymouth, CC BY-ND

When I began teaching a few years later, I challenged my students to find the smallest pieces of plastic on the beach. Looking amongst the sand grains, there they were – tiny blue and red fibres and fragments.

An almost forensic journey ensued to confirm their identity. In collaboration with a polymer chemist, we confirmed the tiny fragments were common plastic polymers – polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – that presumably formed via mechanical degradation and were accumulating as fragments smaller than the grains of sand themselves.

I was hooked on discovering more about this new form of contamination. Working initially with postgraduate students at the University of Plymouth where I was lecturing, we found that these pieces were common on the shore and in seabed mud and we showed they were eaten by marine life. Most alarmingly, we used archived samples of plankton that had been collected decades previously to demonstrate that the abundance of microplastics had increased significantly since the 1960s and 1970s.

I pulled together nearly a decade of this research into a one-page summary entitled “Lost at sea: where is all the plastic?” That paper, published in the journal Science 20 years ago, was the first to use the term microplastics in this context. Within a couple of weeks, this became a worldwide news story.

Everyone wanted to know whether microplastics were harmful. I set out to establish the wider distribution and determine whether they might be harmful to humans and wildlife.

Despite huge media and policy interest, funding was a challenge. One anonymous reviewer commented that there will never be enough plastic in the oceans to cause the sort of harm Thompson wants to investigate.

Over the years that followed, my team and I showed that microplastics were common on shorelines worldwide, they were abundant in the deep sea, in Arctic sea ice and in multiple species of fish. They weren’t just polluting marine environments. They were present in rivers and snow from near the summit of Mount Everest. Everywhere we looked, we found evidence of microplastics.

Richard Thompson first noticed microplastics washed up on the beach in 1993 and his research has focused on them ever since.
University of Plymouth, CC BY-ND

By 2008, the term microplastic was highlighted by the EU’s flagship marine strategy framework directive, a policy introduced to maintain clean, healthy, productive and resilient marine ecosystems. It stipulated that “the quantities of plastic and microplastic should not cause harm in the marine environment”.

We demonstrated that, if ingested, microplastics could transfer from the gut to the circulatory system of mussels and that nanoparticles could pass through the bodies of scallops within a matter of hours. We demonstrated the potential for chemical transfer to wildlife and confirmed that the presence of microplastics could have negative consequences, reducing the ability of organisms to put on weight.

A UK parliamentary environmental audit committee requested a special report on microplastics in 2016. I was called to give evidence, and perhaps prompted by comments from my colleagues, MP Mary Creagh referred to me as the “godfather of microplastics” and so it entered the public record.

There are now thousands of studies on microplastics published by researchers worldwide. Policy interventions resulting from this work include the UK ban on plastic microbeads in rinse-off cosmetics, and EU legislation to prohibit intentional addition of microplastics to products which could prevent hundreds of thousands of tonnes of microplastics entering the environment.

A ban resulted in the phasing out of plastic microbeads used in cosmetic products like these. The top row shows microbeads found in products during 2015, below features products from 2018 after new regulation.
University of Plymouth, CC BY-ND

However, the largest source of microplastics is the fragmentation of larger items in the environment. So ultimately, we need to take action to reduce the production of a wider range of plastic products than just those containing microplastics.

Without action, plastic production could triple by 2060. Yet, some nations seem set on a path to increase production rather than reduce it.

Treaty negotiations

Last week, I was in Ottawa where 180 nations debated the content of the global plastic pollution treaty, a text that contains more than 60 references to microplastics.

What can be done to halt this accumulation? Microplastics are almost impossible to remove. Even for larger items, clean up won’t solve the problem. Novel materials such as biodegradable plastics may offer benefits in specific circumstances but won’t solve plastic pollution.

Read more:
A global plastic treaty will only work if it caps production, modelling shows

I left the negotiations with mixed emotions. Pleased that the scientific community had delivered sufficient hard evidence – including some of my own research – on plastic pollution to initiate the need for this global treaty. Saddened that 180 nations found it so hard to reach a consensus on the way forward. Negotiations failed to stipulate that independent scientists should even be included in formal expert working groups.

Like many scientists who helped deliver the evidence of harm, it’s immensely frustrating to potentially be sidelined from an international process that hopes to deliver solutions. It may be hard for some to swallow – I saw one delegate holding a single-use plastic water bottle behind his back during negotiations. Contrary to the outcome of those midnight discussions in Ottawa, the focus must be on prevention by reducing global production of plastic polymers and ensuring any plastic items we do produce are essential, safe and sustainable. Läs mer…

Changes in personality following a heart transplant have been noted pretty much ever since transplants began. In one case, a person who hated classical music developed a passion for the genre after receiving a musician’s heart. The recipient later died holding a violin case.

In another case, a 45-year-old man remarked how, since receiving the heart of a 17-year-old boy, he loves to put on headphones and listen to loud music – something he had never done before the transplant.

A recent study suggests that heart transplant recipients may not be unique in experiencing personality changes. These changes can occur following the transplantation of any organ.

What might explain this? One suggestion could be that this is a placebo effect where the overwhelming joy of receiving a new lease on life gives the person a sunnier disposition. Other transplant recipients suffer from guilt and bouts of depression and other psychological issues that might also be seen as personality changes.

However, there is some evidence to suggest that these personality changes aren’t all psychological. Biology may play a role, too.

The cells of the transplanted organ will perform their expected function – heart cells will beat, kidney cells will filter and liver cells will metabolise – but they also play a role elsewhere in the body. Many organs and their cells release hormones or signalling molecules that have an effect locally and elsewhere in the body.

The heart seems to be most commonly associated with personality changes. The chambers release peptide hormones, including “atrial natriuretic peptide” and “brain natriuretic peptide”, which help regulate the balance of fluid in the body by affecting the kidneys.

Around two hundred heart transplants are performed in the UK each year.
VesnaArt/Shutterstock

They also play a role in electrolyte balance and inhibiting the activity of the part of our nervous system responsible for the fight-or-flight response. The cells in charge of this are in the hypothalamus – a part of the brain that plays a role in everything from homeostasis (balancing biological systems) to mood.

So the donor organ, which may have a different base level of hormones and peptide production from the original organ, could change the recipient’s mood and personality through the substances it releases.

It has been shown that natriuretic peptide levels are higher following transplantation – and never return to normal. Although some of the elevation is probably a response to the trauma of surgery, it may not account for everything.

Memories stored outside the brain

The body stores memories in the brain. We access them when thinking or they can be triggered by sight or smell. But memories are basically neurochemical processes where nerves convey impulses to each other and exchange specialised chemicals (neurotransmitters) at the interface between them.

While in transplant surgery, many of the nerves that govern the function of the organ are cut and are not able to be reattached, this doesn’t mean that the nerves within the organ do not still function. In fact, there is evidence that they may be partially restored a year after surgery.

These neurochemical actions and interactions could feed into the nervous system of the recipient, enacting a physiological response that then affects the recipient’s personality according to memories from the donor.

We know that cells from the donor are found circulating in the recipient’s body and donor DNA is seen in the recipient’s body two years after the transplant. This again poses the question of where the DNA goes and what actions it may have.

One thing it does is stimulate immune responses. These immune responses may be enough to trigger personality changes as long-term, low-level inflammation is known to be able to change personality traits, such as extroversion and conscientiousness.

Whichever mechanism, or combination of mechanisms, is responsible, this area of research warrants further investigation so that recipients can understand the physical and psychological changes that could occur following surgery. Läs mer…

An international agreement to end plastic pollution is due to be sealed this year in Busan, South Korea. At the penultimate round of negotiations, held in Ottawa, Canada, Rwanda and Peru proposed a target to cut the weight of primary plastics produced worldwide by 40% by 2040, compared with 2025.

This is the first time that a limit on the production of plastic has been considered at the UN talks aiming to develop an international legally binding instrument to end plastic pollution. Of the potential mechanisms for tackling plastic pollution, a cap on plastic production was the most hotly debated, but one has not made it into the draft text of the treaty – not yet, at least.

However, all efforts to scientifically model the extent of plastic pollution in the future assume that restricting how much plastic the world makes each year will be necessary (among other measures) to curb its harmful presence in the environment. In a 2020 study I co-authored, my colleagues and I found that primary plastic production – the creation of new synthetic polymers, largely from fossil fuel – will need to be 47% lower in 2040 compared with the rate measured in 2016.

This scenario would involve plastic production falling by as much as our research team considered practicable. It would predominantly mean everyone using significantly less plastic and substituting it with paper and materials that are compostable.

Cutting production almost in half and using all other strategies, such as ramping up recycling and disposing of plastic waste in landfills or via incineration plants, would still leave residual pollution in 2040. In fact, just under 50 million tonnes of plastic would still be flowing into the ocean and rivers each year or accumulating on land where it may be burned in the open and create even more pollution.

In a 2022 report, the OECD estimated that cutting demand for plastic by 33% relative to 2019 (and enhancing recycling alongside preventing plastic escaping the waste management process) would almost eliminate mismanaged plastic waste by 2060 – that is, plastic that end up as pollution in the environment.

For production to fall, the world must make do with less plastic.
Hedgehog94/Shutterstock

A combination of measures such as these is considered the most effective scenario in cutting pollution. Again though, the OECD model projects slightly over 50 million tonnes of plastic waste being mismanaged annually in 2040. For the accumulation and burning of plastic in the environment to stop, we would have to wait another two decades.

A simulation conducted in 2023 set an even more ambitious target for eliminating plastic pollution by 2040. In it, a cap on production was an essential element alongside 15 other global policy measures which could cut annual mismanaged plastic waste by 90% and virgin plastic use by 30% yearly by 2040, compared with 2019. This would represent a 60% reduction relative to 2040 levels without restrictions on production.

The 40% reduction target floated in Ottawa is generally consistent with what these models suggest is necessary to substantially reduce plastic pollution in coming decades. Whether such a production cap is plausible however is still poorly understood. With plastic production still increasing, it is unclear what policies would reduce it so steeply in just 15 years – and what their side effects might be.

What will it take?

Reducing plastic production would require marked shifts in our lives for which there is little precedent. It could involve massive changes in how we behave as consumers, how products are designed and delivered to us – and so on.

A 40% production cut would probably entail slashing the amount of packaging and single-use plastic made worldwide. These shortlived products account for around half of all plastic production and become waste quickly. Essentially, this would reverse the trend in material use since the mid-20th century.

Every year without production caps makes the necessary cut to plastic production in future steeper – and our need to use other measures to address the problem greater.

Modelling the mess

The combination of policy and technical innovation necessary to eliminate plastic pollution is highly debated. But swingeing production cuts feature in all modelled scenarios.

A less dynamic pace of change is assumed to be necessary for “downstream” measures – those associated with when plastic becomes waste, such as during disposal and recycling. Some of the emphasis on production caps in models originates from the failure of existing waste management services to stop plastic from entering the environment or being burned outdoors.

Since between 1.7 and 2.5 billion people still lack waste collection, some form of reduction in the amount of new plastic made each year might seem attractive – and consistent with the idea of a circular economy and the waste hierarchy, which prioritises waste prevention.

Research I worked on recently showed that a country’s waste management performance is strongly linked to its socioeconomic development. The collection, recycling and disposal of plastic will only prevail as a solution to the extent that countries improve socioeconomically. Clearly, without radical change, the pace of progress on this front would not solve plastic pollution by 2040.

What is ironic, and illustrative of how daunting the challenge is, is that deploying sound waste management to the under-serviced is one of the few solutions that we understand relatively well, based as it is on commercially and technically proven technologies and operational systems.

By contrast, the three models offer only generic insight into what would be necessary to scale down plastic production. Replacing plastic with paper and card would not fundamentally improve matters if this packaging still ended up as waste being burned in the open.

Toxic fumes from burning plastic are a health hazard.
Mohamed Abdulraheem/Shutterstock

There are other options, though. It could be possible to massively simplify the types of polymers used in packaging so that just a few are in circulation. This would make recycling more effective, as one of the present complications is the huge variation in materials that leads to cross-contamination. Likewise, countries could massively expand systems for reusing and refilling containers in shops.

No matter the degree, pathway and pace of plastic production cuts, a fundamental change in our relationship with plastic is necessary. As a target, 2040 seems impossibly close for a viable pathway to significantly lower production, but that should not stop us entertaining such a future. It should alert us to the scientific advances and innovation necessary to make it more plausible.

Let us think of it as a worthy investment of our resources and effort – one that we rely upon for a better future.

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Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 30,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far. Läs mer…

The UK government is proposing major changes to the benefits system, in response to the increase in people claiming benefits for disability and ill health. The proposals, which will be consulted on in the coming months, focus mainly on replacing the personal independence payment (Pip).

Pip is a working-age benefit to help disabled people with the additional costs associated with a long-term health condition or disability. Currently, people receiving Pip must undergo an assessment of the impact of a health condition on day to day activities.

The benefit is paid every four weeks and has two elements: a daily living component paid at either £72.65 or £108.55 per week, and a mobility component paid at either £28.70 or £75.75 per week.

The government wants to move away from this regular cash payment model, and instead provide vouchers for services such as counselling and one-off payments for adaptions in the home. This could mean claimants being asked to provide receipts for expenses such as transport or medical costs.

There are a number of problems with this. For many people, Pip is a vital source of income for not only health-related costs, but also for general living expenses such as rent and utilities. Research shows that, on average, disabled households need £975 more per month to maintain the same standard of living as non-disabled households. This can be because of specialist equipment, the energy costs associated with it, or other mobility and accessibility needs.

Read more:
Disabled people are already cutting back on costs more than others – for many, the £150 cost of living payment won’t do much to help

An approach which requires people to claim only for specific expenses will create financial hardship for many disabled people, who often won’t have the extra cash on hand to pay for their needs and wait for government reimbursement.

It also fails to recognise the enduring nature of many disabilities and health problems, removes choice and suggests that disabled people’s expenses need to be “approved”. This approach implies that people with disabilities can’t be trusted to spend money wisely or know the best way to address their needs.

Many Pip claimants will also receive other benefits, and have been hit by an average reduction in overall benefit payments of £1,200 per year since 2008.

The complex system of benefits

Around 2.6 million people claim Pip, though this number is rising, with 33,000 new claims a month, twice the pre-pandemic rate. Nearly a quarter of adults in the UK report that they live with a health condition or disability, and the government projects that over the next five years spending will increase by 63%.

The proposals are driven by a desire to save money and reduce the number of people claiming Pip. But these aims can’t be achieved without increasing financial hardship on people. It could also create unnecessary administrative burdens in a system that is already difficult to navigate.

Much of the noise around these proposals – the focus on numbers, and work and pensions secretary Mel Stride’s claim that people receive “thousands of pounds per month” (later corrected to thousands of pounds per year) – creates the impression of a soft-touch, easily accessible system.

However, my research with Pip claimants found a system which is incredibly hard to navigate, characterised by poor communication with the Department for Work and Pensions and complicated forms which make it hard to capture complex health conditions. Participants told me that negative messaging about benefit claimants can be overwhelming for people with mental health problems.

The proposed reforms could make navigating the complex benefits system even more onerous.
Noah Emad/Shutterstock

The government is right that improvements are needed to the system. However, the focus should be on improving the accuracy and timeliness of decisions made by the government about who is entitled to Pip.

My research shows that the current system, which relies on the use of private companies to administer medical assessments, is expensive and often produces inaccurate reports. A move to rely on medical evidence from professionals who are familiar with a claimant’s condition would be straightforward and enhance accuracy.

Many claimants with long-term conditions are compelled to make repeated fresh claims for Pip and are required to regularly attend medicals and complete claim forms. This is unnecessary where there is evidence of ongoing health issues, and causes stress for claimants and unjustified pressures on public expenditure. There is already a significant backlog in the Pip system – complicating the process through receipts and vouchers would make this worse.

What’s really needed to reduce costs

Single grants and vouchers undermine the principles of a welfare safety net, which should provide a greater level of economic security for the population. Ongoing benefit payments should relate to actual costs in life and protect people from slipping into poverty.

The numbers of people who rely on disability benefits will decline if the causes of illness are proactively addressed and appropriate support provided. This includes adequate funding for health and social care services, working to address housing insecurity and social isolation and reducing waiting times for hospital appointments and therapeutic support.

Both the Royal College of Psychiatrists and British Medical Association have called for a focus on improving population health, particularly for people with mental health problems, rather than reducing social welfare support.

This should be the focus of government attention, rather than misguided cost-saving changes to Pip. Continuing need cannot be met by one-off responses. Läs mer…

What did our ancestors think when they looked up at the night sky? All cultures ascribed special meaning to the Sun and the Moon, but what about the pearly band of light and shadow we call the Milky Way?

My recent study showed an intriguing link between an Egyptian goddess and the Milky Way.

Southern half of astronomical ceiling from the tomb of Senenmut (ca. 1479-1458 BCE), showing planets, constellations, and star lists.
The Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York; Rogers Fund, 1948.

Slowly, scholars are putting together a picture of Egyptian astronomy. The god Sah has been linked to stars in the Orion constellation, while the goddess Sopdet has been linked to the star Sirius. Where we see a plough (or the big dipper), the Egyptians saw the foreleg of a bull. But the Milky Way’s Egyptian name and its relation to Egyptian culture have long been a mystery.

Several scholars have suggested that the Milky Way was linked to Nut, the Egyptian goddess of the sky who swallowed the Sun as it set and gave birth to it once more as it rose the next day. But their attempts to map different parts of Nut’s body onto sections of the Milky Way were inconsistent with each other and didn’t match the ancient Egyptian texts.

In a paper published in the Journal of Astronomical History and Heritage, I compared descriptions of the goddess in the Pyramid Texts, Coffin Texts, and the Book of Nut to simulations of the Milky Way’s appearance in the ancient Egyptian night sky.

Carved onto the walls of the pyramids more than 4,000 years ago, the Pyramid Texts are a collection of spells to aid the kings’ journey to the afterlife. Painted on coffins a few hundred years after the age of the pyramids, the Coffin Texts were a similar collection of spells. The Book of Nut described Nut’s role in the solar cycle. It has been found in several monuments and papyri, and its oldest version dates back some 3,000 years ago.

The Book of Nut described Nut’s head and groin as the western and eastern horizons, respectively. It also described how she swallowed not only the Sun but also a series of so-called “decanal” stars that are thought to have been used to tell time during the night.

From this description, I concluded that Nut’s head and groin had to be locked to the horizons so that she could give birth and later swallow the decanal stars as they rose and set throughout the night. This meant that she could never be mapped directly onto the Milky Way, whose different sections rise and set as well.

I did, however, find a possible link to the Milky Way in the orientation of Nut’s arms. The Book of Nut describes Nut’s right arm as lying in the northwest and her left arm in the southeast at a 45 degree angle to her body. My simulations of the Egyptian night sky using the planetarium software Cartes du Ciel and Stellarium revealed that this orientation was precisely that of the Milky Way during the winter in ancient Egypt.

The Milky Way is not a physical manifestation of Nut. Instead, it may have been used as a figurative way to highlight Nut’s presence as the sky.

During the winter, it showed Nut’s arms. In the summer (when its orientation flips by 90 degrees) the Milky Way sketched out her backbone. Nut is often portrayed in tomb murals and funerary papyri as a naked, arched woman, a portrayal that resembles the arch of the Milky Way.

However, Nut is also portrayed in ancient texts as a cow, a hippopotamus and a vulture, thought to highlight her motherly attributes. Along the same lines, the Milky Way could be thought of as highlighting Nut’s celestial attributes.

Nut portrayed as a cow.
E. A. Wallis Budge, The Gods of the Egyptians (London: Methuen & Co., 1904); scanned by the author.

The ancient Egyptian texts also describe Nut as a ladder or as reaching out her arms to help guide the deceased up to the sky on their way to the afterlife. Many cultures around the world, such as the Lakota and Pawnee in North America and the Quiché Maya in Central America, see the Milky Way as a spirits’ road.

The Book of Nut also describes the annual bird migration into Egypt and ties it both to the netherworld and to Nut. This section of the Book of Nut describes Ba birds flying into Egypt from Nut’s northeast and northwest sides before turning into regular birds to feed in Egypt’s marshes. The Egyptians considered the Ba, portrayed as a human-headed bird, to be the aspect of a person that imbued it with individuality (similar, but not identical, to the modern Western concept of the “soul”).

The Bas of the dead were free to leave and return to the netherworld as they wished. Nut is often shown standing in a sycamore tree and providing food and water to the deceased and their Ba.

Nut provides food and drink to the deceased and his Ba.
E. A. Wallis Budge, The Gods of the Egyptians (London: Methuen & Co., 1904); scanned by the author.

Once again, several cultures across the Baltics and northern Europe (including the Finns, Lithuanians, and Sámi) view the Milky Way as the path along which birds migrate before winter. While these links don’t prove a connection between Nut and the Milky Way, they show that such a connection would place Nut comfortably within the global mythology of the Milky Way. Läs mer…

The UK banking regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), finds itself in a public row with the government and many City grandees over its proposals to name and shame firms that are being investigated for breaking financial rules. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has called on the FCA to scrap its plans, putting the regulator in the uncomfortable position of having to either climb down or double down.

We asked Professor Alper Kara, a banking specialist at Brunel University, to explain the best way forward.

What does the FCA want to do and why?

The FCA aims to increase transparency of its investigations of misconduct and regulatory breaches. It plans to reveal the names of companies under investigation at a much earlier stage of the process and more frequently. Currently, the FCA only comments in exceptional circumstances and we only hear about cases if there are fines or criminal charges at the end.

The FCA’s view is that increasing transparency will act as a deterrent for wrongdoing. It suggests that it will also increase awareness among companies on what standards they are expected to meet and what types of failings must be avoided. This, in turn, will help them to change their behaviour and reduce misconduct and breaches. The FCA also hopes that naming firms will encourage whistleblowers and witnesses to come forward.

Why are Jeremy Hunt and others opposed?

The City and trade bodies are strongly opposing the proposal, as is the House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee. They all argue it will unduly damage the reputations of named firms before an investigation has concluded, potentially hurting the share prices of those that are listed.

They point out that most companies investigated by the FCA turn out to be innocent, with two-thirds of cases closing without any action taken.

The FCA is coming under heavy pressure over its proposals.
Mark Zakian/Alamy

Another worry relates to the UK’s competitiveness as a global financial hub. Jeremy Hunt fears that naming and shaming would dampen the government’s efforts to attract businesses and investments to London, making it harder to revive the struggling UK economy. Hence he has reminded the FCA that it has a secondary duty to facilitate growth.

How do the rules compare to other countries?

The FCA states that Singapore has a similar framework, for example. On the other hand, as far as I am aware, naming and shaming is not common in other major economies such as the US, Germany, France or Japan.

For this reason, opponents also fear that a stricter UK regime might tempt companies to move elsewhere – at a time when this is happening for other reasons already

Who do you think is right?

The FCA’s role is crucial in maintaining transparency, accountability and integrity in the UK’s financial markets. It is a mammoth task to regulate more than 45,000 companies and a wide spectrum of products and services including banking, insurance, pensions and asset management.

We only need to go as far as the 2007-09 financial crisis to understand why regulation matters in financial markets and why companies in this sector need to be watched carefully.

So the FCA is looking for ways to strengthen its tools to maintain the integrity of financial markets and protect consumers. The watchdog is often criticised – lately by MPs, for example – for lengthy investigations that lack transparency, so the new proposals appear to be a response to this.

However, there seems to be merit in the objections. In particular, it seems legitimate to worry that stricter regulations may prompt companies to relocate, impacting the UK’s competitiveness. Relocating is particularly easy in the financial sector because assets can be moved around swiftly.

Remember that many companies in the financial sector operate internationally. Being named in a case in the UK would impact their international reputation and affect their business elsewhere. This is an added incentive to avoid the risk and move away.

It’s unclear what criteria would be used to name companies. The FCA says it will evaluate this on a case-by-case basis. However, this seems to be defeating the transparency objective. Companies regulated by the FCA are likely to question whether such a process is fair.

The proposals could unfairly lead to volatility in bank share prices.
Ground Picture

I worry about the potential for volatility in stock prices, especially when a case ends with no fines or charges. The FCA argues that this is unlikely, and has given examples from previous cases. But it is not sufficient to draw concrete conclusions from a handful of examples, and more robust research and data is required here.

The UK, like many countries, also maintains costly safety nets to reassure depositors in order to avoid bank runs, such as deposit insurance schemes and lender of last resort facilities. Naming firms under investigation may contradict these efforts.

Is there potential for a compromise?

The FCA proposal and the objections are polar opposites, so I cannot see a middle ground here. The latest response from the FCA indicates that it stands firmly behind the proposal.

Nonetheless, it intends to listen to all views before making a final decision. Even though transparency is generally to be welcomed, it may be better for the watchdog to prioritise stability here. Läs mer…

Brazil records an average of 29,000 snakebites a year, leading to around 130 deaths. And it is in the Amazon that the greatest number of cases occur. This region is home to 38 of the 75 species of venomous snakes recorded in Brazil.

In the event of a snakebite in a remote area of the Amazon, some questions become very important: what is the composition of the venom? Do commercially available serums effectively neutralise this venom? Is there a distribution of these antivenoms in the region? How can the local effects of bites be treated?

To answer these questions, the first step is to study the venoms of snakes in the region. To do this, researchers need to have access to the snakes.

This is where the multidisciplinary study I am coordinating comes in. A team of herpetologists and other professionals that I am part of searches for venomous snakes in forests in the state of Acre and sends the live specimens to the Butantan Institute for study.

The project aims to gain more knowledge about the composition of Amazonian snake venoms and assess whether these venoms are recognised by commercial antivenoms. In addition, the project proposes adjuvant treatments (administered in addition to primary therapy to maximise its effectiveness), such as the use of enzyme inhibitors, mainly to treat the local effects of the bite. Finally, it aims to clarity the procedures for distributing antivenoms in remote areas of the Amazon.

In search of snakes

In order to carry out our research, we need to find venomous snakes in the wild. To do this, our team goes on expeditions, especially to the Serra do Divisor National Park.

Located in the Alto Juruá region, the Serra do Divisor National Park (9) is the westernmost point in Brazil.
Aymatth2, wikipedia

Located in the Alto Juruá region, in the far west of the Brazilian Amazon, the Serra do Divisor is the most westerly point in the country and to get there you have to travel overland: 35 kilometres from Cruzeiro do Sul to the Port of Japiim, in Mâncio Lima. From the port, the journey is by boat on the Moa River and can take between 8 and 12 hours, depending on the type of boat and the time of year.

Our target of observation are the venomous snakes, those that produce venom in specialised glands and have venom-inoculating teeth that can cause poisoning in humans. In the Alto Juruá region, where we collected snakes, 12 species of venomous snakes are known: six true corals, five species of jararacas and the surucucu-pico-de-jaca.

The seriousness of an accident in a place like Serra do Divisor can be greater, due to the great distance between it and towns and hospitals. That’s why you can’t be too careful.

During expeditions, which usually last at least five days, we need to take certain precautions. As well as snakes, you need to be wary of mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria and other venomous animals found in the region, such as stingrays, spiders and scorpions. Other dangers that worry us are storms when we are in the forests, because of the danger of lightning and trees that could fall.

During a night search in the Serra do Divisor, I handled a coral.
Personal archive of the author, Paulo Bernarde

Venomous snakes generally have nocturnal habits and to find them, herpetologists search for them at night on forest trails. At a slow pace, we look carefully on each side of the trail, using torches and observing from the ground to the top of the trees, as far as our eyes can see. Some species can be found up to 20 metres up in the branches of trees.

When we find snakes, we carefully capture them and transport them in boxes to our university, where they are then sent to the Butantan Institute in São Paulo for venom research. On some expeditions, we have captured more than 20 snakes. But in science in general and field research in particular, things don’t always turn out as expected. On our last two expeditions, in December 2023 and February 2024, we found almost half the usual number of snakes.

We believe that the recent El Niño weather event has contributed to the lower frequency of snake encounters, due to changes in the rainfall regime in the region. Our next expedition to the region is scheduled for the end of this year or the beginning of 2025.

Amazonian snakes

The elapids (a family of snakes with 41 species in Brazil) are represented in the region by the true corals. The six true corals of the Alto Juruá belong to the genus Micrurus (M. annellatus, M. bolivianus, M. lemniscatus, M. spixii e M. surinamensis). But none of them have their venom in the “pool” for the production of the (bivalent) antielapid serum, which is made from the venom of the species M. corallinus e M. frontalis, which do not occur in the Amazon.

Unlike the other corals, Micrurus surinamensis feeds mainly on fish. For this reason,it has specifiPhoto shows a red, black and white snake on a leafy groundc characteristics in its venom and prey.
Personal archive of the author, Paulo Bernarde

The interest in Amazonian corals is due to the fact that the biochemical composition of these species’ venoms is relatively less studied and has some particularities. Micrurus surinamensis, for example, unlike other corals, does not feed on amphisbaenians (reptiles popularly known as blind snakes or two-headed snakes) and other snakes, but mainly on fish. As a result, this species has a venom with certain specialisations, aimed at subduing fish, as well as having other types of prey.

The jararaca (Bothrops atrox) is the main snake that causes poisonings in the Amazon.
Personal archive of the author, Paulo Bernarde

Viperids (the family of venomous snakes that includes jararacas, rattlesnakes and the surucucu-pico-de-jaca) are of great interest in this research, since this group is the main cause of snakebite accidents in Brazil. The main snake causing envenomations in the Amazon is the jararaca (Bothrops atrox) and it is the most common snake in the region, found in various types of habitats.

The papagaia (B. bilineatus), which has arboreal habits, stands out for its green colouring, which provides camouflage among the foliage of forest trees. It is one of the species that can be found on branches up to 20 metres high.

Three other species of jararacas – Bothrocophias hyoprora, B. brazili and B. taeniatus – are more difficult to find because they live in terra firme forests and occur in lower population densities.

The surucucu-pico-de-jaca (Lachesis muta) is the largest venomous snake in South America, but is rarely found in dryland forests.
Personal archive of the author, Paulo Bernarde

And then there’s the surucucu-pico-de-jaca (Lachesis muta), the largest venomous snake in South America, which can reach 3.15 metres in length and occurs in low population density in terra firme forests. For this reason, encounters with them are also infrequent.

Knowing more about these snakes can help us produce more effective treatments that are better distributed throughout the Amazon region. Läs mer…

Former prime minister Boris Johnson was reportedly turned away on election day after arriving at his polling station to vote with only “an envelope with his name and address on it”. He was informed that under the new rules, brought about by his government, he could not vote.

Johnson did eventually return to the polling station with the right form of ID and was able to vote, but the debacle presents more than just difficult optics for British democracy. The UK has a general election on the very near horizon. If even a former prime minister is having difficulty casting a ballot in a local election, is it time for a rethink of the rules?

Another case playing out as Johnson was presumably looking for his driver’s licence was that of Adam Diver, who had spent 27 years serving his country in the army. He said on Twitter that he had arrived at his local polling station to be told that he did not have an accepted form of identification. His veteran ID card was not on the list of acceptable forms of ID and he would not be able to exercise his democratic right to vote.

Johnny Mercer MP, a Conservative party minister whose government introduced the new voter identification law, quickly apologised to Diver. The list of acceptable forms of identification was published before veterans ID cards started coming out in January this year, so before this election, he said. “I will do all I can to change it before the next one”. Small consolation for Diver.

What are the voter ID rules?

The Elections Act 2022, which came into force during Johnson’s tenure, introduced new requirements for citizens to present ID at UK general elections and some local elections. Prior to this, no form of identification was required in England, Wales and Scotland.

Accepted forms of identification include passports and driving licences but also a range of other options. If citizens don’t have identification, then they can apply for a free voter authority certificate, provided that they do so before the deadline (which was April 25 for these local elections).

The proposals first came from a 2016 report on “electoral fraud”, written by former Conservative party chairman Eric Pickles. The stated aim of the new laws was to reduce the chance of people impersonating others to steal their vote. But the reality is that impersonation in polling stations, the problem which voter identification is proposed to fix, is very rare.

Data from the Electoral Commission shows that in 2019, a general election year, there were two convictions or cautions for someone voting by pretending to be someone else. Research on the nature of problems in polling stations finds that the more significant problem is that many voters arrive to find that their name is not on the electoral register on polling day.

Many citizens are often already turned away because they miss the registration deadline or misunderstand the registration voting process. These, it might be argued, are more pressing problems to address than impersonation.

It’s not just former prime ministers

The evidence is also clear that voter identification requirements cause many eligible citizens to not vote on election day. My study with Alistair Clark at Newcastle University from the 2023 local elections found that 70% of poll workers turned away at least one voter because they did not have an acceptable form of identification.

The government’s own research showed that 9% of the public do not have in-date and recognisable identification. The availability of identification is lower amongst those with a severely limiting disability, the unemployed and those without educational qualifications.

Voters were reminded to bring ID in an information campaign.
Alamy/Maureen McLean

The experience of not being able to vote can be distressing, as can having to block someone from voting. As one poll worker described in one of our studies: “Women were turned away because they got married and changed their names, then their ID and register names were different”. The worker said they felt this was gender discrimination and added: “I’m quite upset that I’ve turned voters away and particularly discriminating against women.”

Voter identification could be made to work with minimal effect on turnout if sufficient safeguards are introduced to still ensure that eligible electors could vote. As I said in evidence I gave to parliament while these laws were being put together, compromise is possible.

Citizens without voter ID on the day could, for example, be allowed a provisional vote, casting a ballot into a separate box which could be included in the total later on if they come back with ID later on. This is a common practice in the US and ensures citizens have an opportunity to still vote. That said, it does cause delays in counting and doesn’t solve the problem for people without ID.

A second option would involve being flexible about the form of voter identification. Voter identification requirements comes in many forms around the globe.

Some countries are strict about having a photo, while others, such as Canada, accept dozens of different forms of ID. Even the Pickles report, which the government was heavily leaning on, suggests that utility bills could be included.

The UK can learn a lot from Canada, including by borrowing from their “vouching” approach. This system allows one citizen who has ID to vouch for another who doesn’t by signing an affidavit confirming their identity.

This provides a clear paper trail linked to registered voters so that any suspicions of irregularities can be investigated. It also ensures that many citizens without identification, or those who feel uncomfortable providing it, can still cast their vote. Family, friends and neighbours can help one another to participate.

Roughly 1% of the population use this as a way to ensure they can still vote. If vouching was allowed at a UK general election, it could therefore enable roughly half a million people to vote.

The reasons for not having voter identification can be varied. They range from just forgetting on election day to having the wrong idea about what’s acceptable, as in the case of the former prime minister. Some reasons, such as people not having the right ID, reflect underlying inequalities in society.

With a general election on the way, millions of people will be headed to the polls. Relatively easy reforms, such as “vouching”, are needed to make sure that everyone can cast their vote, including Boris Johnson. Läs mer…

The local elections which took place on May 2 have provided an unusually rich set of results to pore over. Around 2,600 seats were up for election on 107 councils across the country. There were elections for 37 police and crime commissioners, and for 11 local mayors. And much as the government would have preferred us not to notice, there was a parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South.

It will be a couple days before we have the full results, but the big picture so far is that the Conservatives have lost about half the council seats they have been defending. According to election analyst Sir John Curtice, they could lose 500 seats by the time counting is finished over the weekend.

The party will, however, welcome the victory of their candidate, Ben Houchen, in the Tees Valley mayoral contest. He ran a campaign which focused on his achievements and played down his Conservative affiliations. But even that contest provides a mixed picture for the party, particularly given that Labour won control of Hartlepool council, one of the districts in the Tees Valley.

Labour has done well, gaining just over 40% of the council seats lost by the Conservatives. Labour won control of Thurrock in Essex, Redditch in Worcestershire and Rushmore in Hampshire in addition to Hartlepool. Redditch and Rushmore are both in the Conservative heartlands and so these wins have important implications for Labour support in the general election later this year.

A local man casts his vote and describes the experience as quite enjoyable.
Alamy

That said, Labour lost control of Oldham council in Greater Manchester where independents did particularly well. The town has a high proportion of Muslim voters and it looks like many of them are deserting the party because of Keir Starmer’s position on Gaza.

A general election ahead

These results give us a good indication of what to expect in the general election expected this year. There is a lot of inertia in voting behaviour over time, with current general elections being strongly influenced both by voting in previous general elections and also by recent local elections. So when a local vote is as close to the general election as this, there’s a lot to be gleaned.

There is a strong relationship between the Labour vote share in the 20 general elections from 1950 to 2019, for example, and the Labour vote share in the election that came before each of these contests. Meanwhile, polls showed far greater volatility.

Labour vote shares in general elections:

One good election leads to another, and vice versa.
P Whiteley, CC BY-ND

The chart shows that when Labour does well in a general election, it tends to do well in a subsequent election. The relationship also works in reverse since a poor result in one election is often followed by a poor result in the subsequent election.

The correlation between the two is very strong (0.70) over this period of nearly three-quarters of a century. The 2019 result marked in the chart shows how much of a mountain the party still needs to climb to win next time.

The best guide to the next general election from these contests is what happened in the Blackpool South byelection. Local elections are always influenced by national politics, but byelections are even more focused on the national picture.

In Blackpool South, the Conservative vote share fell by 32% compared to the 2019 election, while Labour’s share increased by 21%. This produced a huge swing to Labour of 26%.

The largest swing to Labour in the post-war period was in 1997 – a swing of 8.8%. Swings in byelections can be much larger, but we are nonetheless in meltdown territory as far as the Conservatives are concerned.

Meanwhile, it’s quite disturbing from the Tories’ point of view that the Reform candidate nearly pushed them into third place in Blackpool South. Reform received 3,101 votes or nearly 11% of the total. They were only 117 votes behind the Conservatives. Richard Tice, the Reform party leader, was very upbeat when he was interviewed on LBC about the contest, saying that it was the best byelection result the party had ever achieved.

This will have the Tories concerned about whether such a result can be improved on in the general election. Reform could become a serious rival to the Conservatives, particularly in the red wall seats, in the general election.

The local elections of 1996 were the worst for 50 years for the Conservatives. Back then, they took just under 19% of the seats. They were eclipsed by Labour with 49% and by the Liberal Democrats with 22%.

The following year, Tony Blair won a landslide victory in the general election. Counting continues, but Rishi Sunak will no doubt be wondering if a new low is about to be hit. Läs mer…